AFU offensive in the Lyman direction: what is known about the operation and why OSINT analysts call it a breakthrough

The Kremlin head Vladimir Putin announced the capture of Sviatohirsk on September 1. This city lies 15 km northwest of Lyman, and an important shrine for Orthodox Christians, the Sviatohirsk Lavra, is located on its outskirts. The next day, the information about the capture of the city was disseminated by the Russian Ministry of Defense. The agency provided no evidence of this.

Even then, these statements caused skepticism even among pro-Russian military bloggers. The fact is that the settlement was at that moment approximately 10-12 km from the front line, and there was no data on successful infiltration of Russian assault troops in its direction.

The day after Russia's statements, several Ukrainian journalists walked through Sviatohirsk and found no Russians there. In the afternoon of September 7, the press service of the Third Army Corps, which is responsible for this section of the front, released a video with a statement by General Biletsky, who freely and even without a helmet walks through the streets of Sviatohirsk and near the Sviatohirsk Lavra. He demonstrates that civilian vehicles are moving through the city, and the settlement itself is under the full control of the Ukrainian army. Moreover, the commander of the 3rd AC calls it a "rear city."

Павялічыць

"It's not that there was never a Russian soldier in Sviatohirsk (in 2022, this city was under the occupation of the Russian army for several months. – Ed.), but here, in principle, you can walk around without any problems, although it's preferable to wear a bulletproof vest... This is the rear zone of our corps, everything is great here," he stated.

By the standards of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the phrase "rear zone" can indicate that the settlement is at least 20-30 km from the front line. And further reports from Ukrainian, Russian, and foreign OSINT analysts indeed confirmed that the Ukrainian army likely managed not only to push the enemy back from Sviatohirsk but also to regain significant territory near Lyman.

"Vulnerable" Salient

Informed BBC sources among the military-political leadership confirm the fact of an offensive operation near Lyman but emphasize "that it is still ongoing." Accordingly, there are no official details yet.

The press service of the Third Army Corps stated that they could not comment on this issue "for security reasons."

At the same time, several foreign OSINT analysts reported that the Ukrainian offensive in this sector of the front has already been successful and managed to liberate hundreds of kilometers of territory, cutting off the Russian army's "salient" that had formed northwest of Lyman.

This refers to the bridgehead of the Russian Armed Forces, which they captured on the right bank of the Chorniy Zherebets River in the summer-autumn of 2025. At that time, Russian servicemen were able to cross the water obstacle and advance 17-20 km deep into Ukrainian territory in the direction of Sviatohirsk. They also crossed the Nitrius River, and in March of this year, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the village of Yarova, which is only 5 km from the Sviatohirsk Lavra.

Павялічыць

Further advancement could have led to the fall of Lyman, which would have been cut off from logistical routes, and beyond that, to a serious complication of the situation to the south – near the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.

According to French military OSINT analyst Clément Malin, Ukrainian Defense Forces began a counter-offensive operation near Lyman in late May, which continued for almost 4 months in complete secrecy.

The expert noted that the parties almost did not publish content with geo-referencing to these locations, but he, in particular, analyzed where Russian aerial bombs fell. This allowed him to draw conclusions about who controlled the mentioned territory.

Malin noted that already in June-July, the AFU managed to liberate a number of villages in this direction, but information about this was classified. Now, according to his data, the Ukrainian army has completely cut off the Russian salient, pushing the enemy back across the Zherebets River.

The American analytical center "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) in its report of September 7 refers to Russian military bloggers who "are increasingly acknowledging facts of Ukrainian counterattacks around Lyman."

"ISW's mapping methodology understates the scale of probable Ukrainian successes in current counterattacks in the Lyman direction, and additional data collection will likely show the full extent of Ukrainian victories in the Lyman direction in the autumn of 2026," the report states.

Ukrainian military analyst Mykhailo Zhirokhov told the BBC that his sources among the AFU military confirm the information about the successful elimination of the Russian bridgehead near Lyman.

"I was very cautiously confirmed that, indeed, it was possible to cut off the Russian salient," he said.

The analyst explained:

"The fact is that this Russian salient 'over-ripened'. The Russians advanced too far, and its flanks were not secured; there were no necessary forces and means there. Ukrainian groupings were able to inflict two converging strikes on the Russians in the direction of the narrow 'isthmus' of this salient. This was its most vulnerable spot."

Zhirokhov emphasizes that, according to his data, the Ukrainian army did not simply create a "kill zone" here with the help of attack UAVs, but physically cleared the designated territory of the enemy. In his opinion, the AFU will not continue the offensive deep into the territory, but will maintain defense along the line of the Chorniy Zherebets River to prevent its crossing. This could thwart all of Russia's plans to capture Lyman and reach the rear of the grouping defending Sloviansk.

What the Russians say

Official Russian sources have not commented on Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyman (the Kremlin uses the Soviet name "Krasny Lyman"). Moreover, according to statements by the Russian Ministry of Defense, as of mid-August, the Russians were conducting a "cleansing of Lyman" and "cutting off AFU logistics" in this direction.

A completely different situation emerges from the reports of pro-war bloggers from Russia. Some of them even began to talk about the retreat or encirclement of the Russian grouping.

Thus, the large Telegram channel "Two Majors" (almost 1.2 million subscribers) stated as of September 8 that the situation in the Lyman direction "is becoming more complicated." It was noted that Ukrainian forces are attacking from the northern direction near the villages of Redkodub and Karpivka, entering the villages of Yampolivka and Zarichne, which are on the left bank of the Chorniy Zherebets River, and have also already driven the Russian army out of the southeastern outskirts of Lyman.

Another Russian Z-blogger Yuriy Podolyaka (almost 2.7 million subscribers) also admitted that the Ukrainian army "is advancing" with the aim of cutting off Russian logistics near Lyman.

The Telegram channel "Rybar" (1.5 million subscribers) admits that "new evidence of the deteriorating situation" is appearing in this direction.

According to military blogger Anatoly Radov (36.5 thousand subscribers), the situation here for Russian troops is "difficult" and is getting "worse and worse." However, he denies that there is an "order for the troops to retreat" near Lyman.

"The guys are holding the defense," he wrote.

He did not specify where exactly, however.

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