Yemen's Houthis approached the strategically important Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This is a new challenge for the global economy

According to Yemeni authorities, the Houthis captured the coastal city of Mocha, which is less than 80 kilometers from the strait. In a week of fighting, according to AFP, more than 500 people were killed, mostly military personnel and members of armed groups. About 18.5 thousand residents were forced to leave their homes.

The offensive is accompanied by strikes on Saudi Arabian territory. According to the Saudi coalition, the Houthis attacked the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, and Jizan with ballistic missiles and drones. As a result of one of the recent attacks in the south of the country, 73 civilians were injured.

Riyadh responds with massive airstrikes. The Houthis claim that in the last hours alone, Saudi aviation conducted about 40 strikes on the provinces of Taiz, Hodeidah, Al-Jawf, and Ma'rib. Earlier, they accused Saudi Arabia of a prison strike, which, according to the Yemeni Ministry of Health, killed 32 people, with many prisoners trapped under the rubble.

The new escalation threatens to finally destroy the fragile truce that has contained the civil war in Yemen since 2022. The conflict began in 2014 after the Houthi capture of the capital Sana'a. In March 2015, a Saudi Arabia-led coalition intervened in the war.

Today, the Houthis remain the largest military force in Yemen and control territories where, according to Reuters estimates, about 60-65% of the country's population lives.

The Houthi advance towards Bab-el-Mandeb is significant not only for Yemen but also for the global economy. After Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia redirected a significant portion of its oil exports through the Red Sea. Now, the Houthis' approach to Bab-el-Mandeb poses a threat to this route as well.

The situation is further complicated by the complex structure of the Yemeni conflict. The internationally recognized authority is represented by the Presidential Leadership Council based in Aden, headed by Rashad al-Alimi. Tareq Saleh's National Resistance Forces also oppose the Houthis. A separate force remains the Southern Transitional Council, which advocates for the independence of southern Yemen. The Sunni party "Al-Islah," historically linked to the "Muslim Brotherhood," also holds significant influence.

Thus, the fighting on Yemen's western coast becomes part of a broader struggle for control over the Middle East's oil routes. If the Houthis manage to establish themselves directly near Bab-el-Mandeb, one of the region's two main sea routes to the global energy market will be threatened.

The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is located at the southern tip of the Red Sea and connects it to the Gulf of Aden, and through it, to the Indian Ocean. The strait is about 100 kilometers long, and at its narrowest point, its width is about 30 kilometers. It separates Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula from Djibouti and Eritrea on the Horn of Africa.

The Red Sea is an important maritime corridor between Europe and Asia, which is why Bab-el-Mandeb is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Through it, oil tankers and cargo ships head towards the Suez Canal, and further into the Mediterranean Sea. This route allows shortening the path between Asia, Europe, and North America by thousands of kilometers.

In 2024, when the Houthis began attacking ships in the Red Sea amid the war in Gaza, traffic through the Suez Canal sharply decreased and has not yet returned to its previous level. According to IMF PortWatch, in 2023, 26,895 vessels passed through the canal, averaging 73.7 vessels per day. In 2024, their number decreased to 14,498, and in 2025 – to 14,070.

The Houthis stated that they were attacking ships in solidarity with Palestinians. They claimed that vessels linked to Israel were their target.

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