Analyst Siarhei Chaly does not foresee any event that would radically change trends in 2026.
Photo: Belsat
Economic stagnation can last for a long time, he muses on Belsat. But next year, Chaly believes, a trend may mature with a question from even apolitical Belarusians: "Why am I enduring this?"
"The main political changes do not happen at the moment when everything is bad, but when the hope that things will continue to be good changes to the feeling that no, things will not continue this way, but on the contrary, will get worse," says Chaly.
The war in Ukraine, Chaly anticipates, will somehow end — either badly, or not very badly. But for Belarus, the only good scenario for the end of this war he sees is a complete and unconditional capitulation of Russia. If the war ends on terms close to Russia's demands, Lukashenka will be left alone with Vladimir Putin: there will be nothing that can be "sold" to the United States, nothing to talk about with European neighbors, and there will be a threat of the war expanding to NATO countries.
The political regime of Belarus is not just a "dictatorship on bayonets," he believes. Lukashenka fears any outrage that might happen even over public transport. And it will inevitably arise from something — and there are few tools to extinguish it. Most likely, Chaly predicts, they will transition to a true dictatorship, in which "a well-restrained patient does not need anesthesia."
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Прагнозы іх не спрау́джваюцца на 99%, як і вада ад Алана Чумака зараджаная шляхам 3 літровага слоіка перад ТВ