«As soon as dictatorships face real force, they quickly suffer defeat»

Peruvian shamans hold photographs of U.S. President Donald Trump and Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro during their annual ritual to predict political and social problems for the New Year in Lima. December 29, 2025. Photo: AP Photo/Guadalupe Pardo

Parallels Between Belarus and Venezuela

It is quite revealing that events in distant Venezuela have greatly stirred the Belarusian community—both the authorities and their opponents. And this is not accidental, as very transparent parallels arise. The situation in Belarus and Venezuela is quite similar. In both places, dictatorial regimes existed that suffered electoral defeats and maintained power by force against the will of the people. In both countries, political repressions and mass emigration occurred.

This was accompanied by aggressive anti-American, anti-Western rhetoric. Nicolás Maduro declared the popular protests an attempt by the U.S. to carry out a coup d'état. How similar this is to how Alexander Lukashenka explains the events of 2020. Both regimes aligned with Russia, China, pursued a course of creating an anti-Western «international,» allied with Iran, Cuba, and befriended each other.

But there is also a difference. The Maduro regime brought the country to socio-economic collapse. It is unable to perform elementary state functions to maintain society's viability. A country with the largest oil reserves in the world found itself in a state of economic collapse, million-percent inflation, shortages of essential goods, famine, huge queues in shops, a rationing system (even toilet paper was rationed), regular robberies, and widespread crime. Around 8 million people have fled the country since 2014 (Venezuela's population in 2023 is 30 million people. — «Radio Svaboda»), which is one of the largest migration crises in the world.

Nevertheless, even against this backdrop, the Maduro regime demonstrated incredible political resilience. Partly because it was involved in drug trafficking.

Multipolar Disorder and the Right of the Strong

This U.S. military operation against Venezuela has many aspects. It provides grounds to draw several important lessons.

When Russia's aggression against Ukraine began, opponents of the West rejoiced, saying that the era of Western dominance was over, and now, instead of a unipolar world, a multipolar order had emerged.

However, the reality turned out to be somewhat different. Instead of a multipolar order, as was expected, a multipolar *disorder* emerged to replace the unipolar order.

Some experts prophesied that Russian aggression would open Pandora's Box. Instead of international law, of a «rules-based order,» the right of the strong begins to operate. Now almost «anything is allowed».

Recent events around Venezuela became a loud echo of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation. Since a war without rules had already begun, the U.S. showed all its opponents that it could also act in this way.

Why International Legitimacy Matters

The U.S. made the accusation against the Maduro regime of supplying drugs to the U.S. the main justification for its operation. But not only that. An important motive was the accusations against the Venezuelan authorities of dictatorship. Donald Trump said that the regime there was unjust «towards its own people.» It is known that during the suppression of protests, many people died there in recent years alone.

And it is here that, suddenly, a seemingly ephemeral category like international legitimacy comes to the surface. It is noteworthy that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio shared his tweet from six months ago, in which he stated that the U.S. does not consider Maduro a legitimate head of state: «He is the leader of a drug cartel that has seized the country.»

Now Americans are saying: we captured not the legitimate president of Venezuela, but a usurper, and moreover, the head of a drug cartel.

What's the bottom line? In recent years, dictatorships have demonstrated strength in their fight against democracy. And quite successfully.

Now, finally, democracy has shown its strength. Recently, Trump warned Iran's leadership that if the authorities there began to massively execute people, the U.S. might intervene.

The operation against Maduro gave weight to this warning. Dictators all over the world were shown that they could be dealt with in this manner.

On January 3, Donald Trump published the first photo of the detained Nicolás Maduro aboard an American aircraft carrier on the social network Truth Social.

Vulnerability of Dictatorships

In purely technical terms, the American military demonstrated high efficiency. They captured and removed the dictator from the capital of Venezuela virtually without a fight, as if in a drill. Especially against the backdrop of Russian aggression against Ukraine, which has been bogged down for four years. There is something to compare with.

The story of Maduro's capture once again showed: as soon as dictatorships encounter real force, they are quickly defeated, offering almost no resistance. They are strong only in a war against an unarmed populace.

And where were Maduro's troops, his numerous special services? What happened to his inner circle? Everything collapsed like a house of cards.

This often happens with dictatorial regimes whose strength is purely superficial, based on bluff. For example, in 2003, the army of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein numbered hundreds of thousands of soldiers but surrendered to the forces of the international coalition led by the U.S. almost without a fight.

A very pertinent question: what happened to the allies of the Maduro regime? Why didn't Russia, China, who supplied weapons there, intervene? Incidentally, Belarus also sold air defense systems to Venezuela.

One can recall that last year Russia abandoned Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, did not help its ally Iran during that country's recent war with Israel and the U.S. And will Moscow come to the aid of Lukashenka's regime in some critical situation?

«Don't Play Games with Trump»

Donald Trump recalled another grievance against the Chavez-Maduro regime. It expelled American oil companies from the Venezuelan market. In fact, U.S. businesses were «dumped» there.

And here interesting parallels emerge. During recent negotiations with Trump's special envoy John Kowl, Lukashenka offered the Americans to become shareholders in the company «Netry Niazyn», which is engaged in potash mining. Over the past 30 years, extensive practice has accumulated regarding how the current regime «dealt» with foreign companies, and how many of them the Belarusian authorities «dumped». If the Americans agree to the potash proposal, a conflict knot might form here. What this could lead to is shown by recent events in U.S.-Venezuelan relations.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio proposed to note another lesson from the American operation against Maduro. «Don't play games with this president,» he said about Trump.

Indeed, playing cat and mouse with a superpower is dangerous. One should not forget the balance of power. It seems Lukashenka still had illusions that this was a game among equals. He was accustomed to playing from a position of strength, renouncing commitments made, and not fulfilling promises. With such a set of rules, he entered into negotiations with the U.S. The fate of Nicolás Maduro should serve as a menacing warning.

U.S. Operation in Venezuela Broke Lukashenka's Game

The American operation in Venezuela probably came as a shock to Lukashenka, derailing his political positioning. Two fundamentally contradictory approaches clashed.

On the one hand, Lukashenka is categorically against violent changes of power, especially dictatorial ones. For him, any power is sacred, and an attempt on it is blasphemy. He defended all dictators, offering political asylum to many (Slobodan Milošević, Saddam Hussein, Viktor Yanukovych). He harbored former Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. He declared his readiness to accept Maduro as well, calling him a «heroic man» in a recent interview. Lukashenka always identifies with the fate of dictators.

But there is another side. In 2025, Lukashenka felt out a strategy that was supposed to help solve international problems, primarily in relations with the West. He bet on Trump, presenting himself as a consistent Trumpist. The U.S. President, in Lukashenka's imagination, acted as a kind of battering ram that was supposed to demolish the Western wall. It seemed they had found a common language, based on pragmatism rather than discussions about human rights.

And everything was going so well when suddenly the «Maduro incident» occurred. It knocked the entire program off course. And the regime became agitated. An official protest against the actions of the U.S. was declared, and support for Venezuela was expressed. But somewhat strangely. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry condemned the «armed aggression» against Venezuela, without mentioning its origin. Then there was a phone call from Foreign Minister Maksim Ryzhenkov to his Venezuelan counterpart. There was also a corresponding statement from the Chairwoman of the Council of the Republic of the National Assembly of Belarus, Natalia Kochanova.

Also, a short, one-sentence remark by Lukashenka appeared, which was reported by BelTA and the Telegram channel «Pool of the First»: «The President of Belarus CATEGORICALLY condemns the act of American aggression against Venezuela.» However, the leader himself was not shown on screen on this occasion. Moreover, this remark is not even on Lukashenka's official website. That is, the reaction seems to exist, but it is somewhat timid and hidden.

Quite recently, Lukashenka joyfully announced his upcoming meeting with Trump. However, now, it can be assumed, if he does expect such a meeting, it is with great caution and suspicion. Because before his eyes is the image of the detained Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, being led in handcuffs to an American detention facility. Whatever you say, the fate of dictators is not sweet.

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