What is happening in the economy that Lukashenka is sometimes saving on electricity, sometimes wants to cut officials?
Throughout February, Alexander Lukashenka has repeatedly complained about problems in the economy, ordered to turn off street lighting, and even demanded an immediate reduction of superfluous state structures, which he called "budgetary leeches". We asked an expert what is currently happening with the economy.
Modest Indicators Against the Backdrop of 2024 Growth
BEROC expert Nastassia Luzgina believes that nothing unexpected is happening in the Belarusian economy.
«If we look at the January indicators, we will see that no new trends are observed. We see the same factors that began to emerge as early as the first half of 2025, when the rates of economic growth began to decline,» the expert explains.
In January, GDP decreased by 1.2% compared to January 2025.
«On the one hand, the Belarusian economy was affected by a significant slowdown in the growth of the Russian economy. And on the other hand, the fact that by the end of 2024, a significant expansion of production had been achieved, as a result of which further active increase in output volumes became problematic.»
The economist emphasizes that the most important point is the limited sales opportunities, which was discussed not only at Lukashenka's recent meeting.
«For 2025, the indicator of the monthly volume of finished products in enterprise warehouses increased, which means that goods are produced, but sales volumes are insufficient. This is primarily due to the situation in foreign markets, especially the Russian one.»
In addition, the expert draws attention to high competition, which Belarusian goods do not always withstand due to their price-quality ratio.
«In the Chinese direction, Belarusian exports also decreased. If we talk about potash, then in China, Russian 'Uralkali' also provides competition for us.»
At the same time, one cannot speak of a decline across all positions.
For example, consumer exports for January-November 2025 increased by 11.3% compared to the analogous period of 2024. And food supplies — by 15.9%.
However, food imports to Belarus increased by 25.5% — with increasing incomes, Belarusians prefer imported goods over domestic ones.
Photo: Getty Images
Investment imports also grew at the same time, albeit more slowly. All this ultimately leads to a worsening of the foreign trade balance.
Industry: From Driver to Drag
Against this backdrop, the planned GDP growth of 2.8% looks unrealistic.
«Such indicators are very far off. For now, on the contrary, there is only a trend towards worsening. In industry, we have a decrease of 3.4% for January.
Separately for manufacturing — minus 7.5%, which is significant, as it is an important sector that accounts for about 20% of GDP. It turns out that the sector of the economy that was a driver in 2024 is now pulling all indicators down," says Anastassia Luzgina.
At the same time, according to the expert, there are not many objective prerequisites that could positively influence the situation.
«What happens in the Russian economy will play a big role, but this is already an external factor that does not depend on Belarus.
Inside the country, most likely, the authorities will try to stimulate the economy: investments, lending for domestic goods. But so far, we see that all these actions have had a rather cosmetic effect, because, despite them, the economy has been slowing down and continues to do so," the expert notes.
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