How Trump's war with Iran brought closer the end of oil and gas and paved the way for electricity

Illustrative photo. Photo: Nasha Niva

All because Trump's war with Iran provoked a new energy crisis that could overshadow all previous ones. And so far, this crisis is best weathered by countries that drew conclusions from the previous one, caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and invested in electric vehicles and solar energy.

The leaders of the "green revolution" are China and the European Union.

China — because it is the world's factory, depends on energy resource imports, and strives for energy independence to win the struggle for global economic dominance over the United States — the world's largest producer of oil and gas.

The European Union — because it lost its largest energy resource supplier, Russia, as soon as Russia decided to use oil and gas supplies for political and economic pressure on Europe to conquer Ukraine.

After the US attack on Iran, gas prices in Europe rose from 30 to 50 euros per megawatt-hour, whereas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they reached 300 euros. And China not only doesn't overpay for gas and oil but also expensively resells Russian liquefied natural gas shipments to Japan — because it has enough energy, despite the global crisis.

All thanks to renewable sources — solar panels, windmills, and hydroelectric power plants. And the revolution in vehicle transport.

How much oil electric vehicles save

China collectively switched to electric vehicles and became their main exporter on the planet. Last year, sales of electric cars in China grew fourfold compared to 2021 and surpassed sales worldwide.

The electrification of transport is directly related to the oil crisis. Last year alone, thanks to the transition to electric vehicles, the world as a whole saved 2.7 million barrels of oil per day, according to BloombergNEF analysts. In total, the savings will double in four years, they predict.

For comparison: due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the world fell short by 10-12 million out of the 105 million barrels of oil it consumed before the war. In other words, if the war with Iran had happened simultaneously with Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the deficit would have been even more significant, and prices would have risen even more sharply.

This statistic can be looked at from another angle: to compensate for the oil shock, Western countries decided to undertake an unprecedented sale of oil from strategic reserves in modern history. The declared volume of interventions is about 3 million barrels per day for 4-5 months.

If it weren't for electric vehicles, twice as much would have had to be sold, which is physically impossible due to export infrastructure limitations. This means oil would now cost even more.

Farewell to gas

China switched to electric vehicles and covered the Gobi Desert with solar panels for energy security reasons, to be less dependent on oil imports from the Middle East, as well as from Russia, Australia, and the US. Europe did the same to get rid of Russian oil and gas dependence.

However, geopolitical considerations gradually gave way to purely economic ones: renewable energy sources became cheaper and more accessible. Even without grants and subsidies, windmills, batteries, and electric vehicles proved more attractive.

Since the energy crisis provoked by Russia in 2021-2022, solar panels and windmills have become more than 20% cheaper, and their efficiency has increased. Now it is easier, faster, and cheaper to build and commission them than coal, gas, hydro, and especially nuclear power plants.

Since windmills and solar panels were initially a symbol of the fight against climate change, most countries were not rushing with the expensive transition to renewable sources. They planned to use natural gas — more environmentally friendly than coal — as a "transitional" fuel.

A new war in the Middle East called this strategy into question. Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which Qatar supplied approximately 20% of all natural gas to the world market. Now former consumers of Qatari gas are burning coal again, as it is the only thing sufficient at home and that does not need to be imported.

However, the overall strategy of transitioning to renewable sources has not changed. Only the tactics have changed.

“In the last crisis, mainly Europe suffered, but this time — everyone. It is not excluded that many countries will now decide to skip the transitional gas period and immediately switch to renewable energy sources, while retaining coal in their energy balance,” notes Anne-Sophie Corbeau from Columbia University.

Who will pay: all together or each separately

“The conclusion is obvious: countries that have replaced gas generation with renewable energy sources are now less vulnerable to rising oil and gas prices,” write experts from the European research center Bruegel.

However, as soon as "green" technologies became economically attractive, governments cut subsidies, and the transition to renewable energy sources slowed down.

“While gas price increases outpaced electricity prices in 2022 and 2023, sales of heat pumps across Europe grew, after which growth rates slowed in 2024 and 2025. And the European Commission curtailed the plan for installing heat pumps,” Bruegel cites as an example of how subsidies fade as the crisis eases.

But a new calamity arrived — the war in the Middle East. It brought the question of state support back to the agenda.

“The current energy crisis is fully capable of overshadowing the 1970s oil shock, which became a catalyst for the transition to alternative energy sources,” believes former high-ranking US White House official Jason Bordoff from Columbia University. “But for this, reforms are needed.”

Some countries have already announced similar reforms to catch up in the "green revolution".

In the UK, for example, portable solar panels, which are freely sold in Germany, Nepal, and other countries, were until now banned. The panel is hung on a balcony or a roof, plugged into a household socket, and generates electricity, reducing the overall load on the grid.

Only now, when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and oil and gas prices sharply increased, have the British authorities stirred, promised to lift the ban, and agreed with supermarkets that they will import and sell portable solar panels.

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