Program Director of Valdai Club Warns of Possible Military Confrontation Between Russia and the West

Timofeev described three scenarios for the development of economic confrontation between Russia and the West in a column published under the title "Sanctions Forever?". A military conflict with individual Western countries or with all of them simultaneously, according to Timofeev, is "a more radical scenario" for the development of confrontation.

If the confrontation between Russia and Western countries escalates into a military clash, as stated in the column, "in addition to direct military threats, this will lead to a final and complete rupture of economic and humanitarian relations." Currently, trade between Russia and the EU remains "impressive", Timofeev writes. According to him, it amounts to about 60 billion dollars with a downward trend, although before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine it exceeded 250 billion euros.

For now, Timofeev assesses the likelihood of military escalation as low. "The risks are too great, including the possible prospect of using nuclear weapons," writes the program director of the Valdai Club.

Timofeev named "gradual escalation" of sanctions, meaning the expansion of restrictions, as the baseline scenario. The EU will play a key role in this, as stated in the column, and "the US may return to a more intensive sanctions policy after a change in administration or due to deteriorating prospects for negotiations".

A more positive scenario, according to the column's author, could be a temporary suspension of the conflict. According to Timofeev, this "would create a slightly more favorable environment for the economy." However, the author expressed doubt about the possibility of "resolving the entire complex of security problems in Europe under current conditions" and the sustainability of a "temporary diplomatic solution".

But even achieving "political agreements does not always lead to the lifting or sustained easing of sanctions" itself, the column states. Therefore, according to Timofeev, "the most reasonable strategy for business, even with the emergence of a more favorable international background for foreign trade," remains "a strategy of adaptation".

Last March, at the congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Vladimir Putin suggested that sanctions against Russia would not be temporary. "Sanctions are not temporary, pinpoint measures; they are a mechanism of systemic, strategic pressure on our country," Putin said then.

European countries are preparing for a possible military confrontation with Russia several years after the freezing of the war in Ukraine. In March 2025, European countries presented a rearmament plan until 2030.

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