Vadzim Kabanchuk told what to do if Russia drags Belarus into war

— You recently said that democratic forces need to prepare their own силовий компонент (power component). What is it needed for?

— Now, by a number of signs, we are approaching another "window of opportunity", and it will depend on us whether we can take advantage of it.

Unfortunately, this window of opportunity will most likely open during a regional, and possibly even global, crisis. And a crisis caused by wars. This in itself does not mean that we will succeed in realizing what failed, for example, in 2020. Everything will depend on whether we can quickly, at moment X, form a functioning and self-sufficient government.

And for this, we need to train senior and middle management now, who will be able to take control of the situation in Belarus at a critical moment. In addition, a major problem for democratic forces remains the creation of a secure power component that can resolve the situation in our favor at a critical moment.

And now, taking into account historical experience, we must expand this component. Its foundation was laid by Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine back in 2014-2015, when the first volunteer units were formed there.

The worst, but at the same time increasingly realistic, option is if the "window of opportunity" opens as a result of Belarus's involvement in hostilities. And if a group of Russian troops is introduced into the territory of Belarus, then, unfortunately, everything will go according to an escalation scenario. Then we will no longer be able to restore our independence by diplomatic and political instruments. We will need a power factor.

— What kind of infrastructure will this be? What power component are you talking about?

— I predict that we will again have many volunteers willing to join volunteer units and contribute to the fateful events that will take place in our region by force.

How many will come? I saw with my own eyes how in 2022 thousands of volunteers were ready to join both the Kalinouski Regiment and other units.

Unfortunately, most of them were physically unable to get to Ukraine and join military units, because entering Ukraine at that time was almost like a real special operation for Belarusians: without appropriate agreements, knowledge, and necessary documents, it was practically closed.

Why did this happen then, in 2022? Because Belarusians saw the same window of opportunity, realized that a situation was emerging in which the actions of each person could directly influence faster changes in the country.

We see that now the flow of volunteers to Ukraine has practically disappeared. Because at a certain point it became clear that direct actions aimed at freeing the country from dictatorship are unlikely in the medium term.

Now the situation may change, and we will see queues of volunteers again. And it is precisely for this that we must be ready. First of all — the United Transitional Cabinet and other initiatives of the Belarusian democratic community. So that we can quickly assemble our military and volunteer corps, strengthen political and public structures.

Let me remind you that in 2022 we were not fully prepared for this, because the Kalinouski Regiment is a phenomenon that arose from below, without the support of the main institutions of the Belarusian democratic forces.

— What about specific units? For example, the UAV company that is currently being formed?

— Such a unit is indeed being created now. I cannot speak about the timing or scale of this unit — for security reasons. But I can explain a little why we focused specifically on UAVs. Not because it is now "fashionable" or more or less safe compared to other types of troops, but because UAVs provide a lever of operational influence, even at a strategic level.

If, for example, I compare a light infantry company and a UAV company, then a UAV company with Middle Strike complexes, for example, can block logistical routes, destroy very significant enemy forces — air defense systems, headquarters — for tens, and maybe even hundreds of kilometers, as well as enemy logistics and personnel.

If we consider the probability that Belarus will still be fully involved in the military conflict, it can be safely assumed that the primary task of Lukashenka's government on the territory of our country will be to support the Russian grouping.

A certain number of railway and automobile routes enter Belarus. And it is our UAV unit that can take on the task of controlling this logistics. Plus, with the scaling of our forces, we will have other opportunities.

It is important to emphasize: we are preparing and will fight only against the Russian Federation. If the territory of Belarus is already involved in the conflict, if it is dragged there, then our capabilities will be very much needed in this situation. UAVs are only one component of the overall puzzle.

— It is difficult to imagine now that, for example, Poland or Lithuania would give permission to form a Belarusian paramilitary unit on their territory…

— Probably, it is impossible now. However, everything can change dramatically if a military conflict arises involving European countries.

In addition, today one can consider — I emphasize, only consider — the possibility of creating a full-fledged Belarusian volunteer formation on the territory of Ukraine.

This option may look more realistic.

— Are there people in Belarus itself with whom democratic forces could interact in the event of Russian military intervention? For example, in the army, security forces, state bodies. In other words, are there any "internal cells" left, or is everything already lost after 2020?

— Even with such "independence" Lukashenka-style, people still realize that Belarus is an independent country and that this is a value.

I am sure that there will be many people ready to stand up for the liberation of Belarus in the event of Russian occupation — direct or indirect. We will cooperate with everyone willing, and then we, Belarusians, will sort things out among ourselves. The main thing for us is that Belarus remains a country where we can return and live.

Because against the background of talks about the deployment of nuclear weapons and the conduct of nuclear exercises in Belarus, the plans of this madman Putin, to put it mildly, do not give hope that we will be able to emerge from this conflict without severe consequences.

— Imagine a situation where Russia uses the territory of Belarus for aggression. What should a Belarusian soldier do in such a situation?

— Sabotage the execution of criminal orders by all possible means. This applies to supplying the Russian army, and to the case when a direct order is given, for example, to attack this or that country. One must try by all means to avoid executing such orders.

I don't know about an "Italian strike." But soldiers actually have many ways not to execute an order. In our information age, everyone's actions will be recorded — what you did in a specific period of time. And then, sooner or later, all this will be analyzed, and a legal verdict will be issued.

In order not to remain in history as a country complicit in aggression, in order not to get stuck in history together with Lukashenka, Belarusians must take certain steps to join the right side. And the right side is Ukraine and our European partners, who will stand united against Russian aggression.

— Residents of several Ukrainian regions, finding themselves under Russian occupation, became cannon fodder for the Russian army. Could the same scenario happen in Belarus? Or do we still have a slightly different situation that we can hope for?

— We have the example of Belarus in 1944, when the Soviet army, returning, mobilized all the male population and drove them to slaughter. I know the history of my village: hundreds of people died then. I see no arguments why they cannot do it again. An empire does not spare even its own people. Why should it care about Belarusians?

You rightly noted: they mobilized almost all the male population in Donbas and Crimea. The same is highly likely to happen in Belarus. I am talking about forced mobilization in one form or another.

To begin with, they can recruit cannon fodder from prisons. Or from "unscrupulous village workers" who have now been forced to learn military affairs. And further, if it "rolls", they can start taking everyone indiscriminately.

— What should people who could hypothetically become "conscripts" do now? What actions?

— It's hard to imagine that many will be able to "partisan" by evading conscription. We have a rather small country. Therefore, I would advise everyone who reasonably fears being drafted into the army to leave the country at least for some time.

Yes, we know about the difficulties in obtaining visas. But several countries are still open to which one can travel from Belarus without a visa, including getting to Europe through them. If a crisis begins, most likely all borders will be closed. The possibility of leaving will no longer exist.

— But what if a person is still mobilized and drafted into the army?

— Then you must try to do everything not to harm anyone. Preserve yourself and sabotage the execution of criminal orders. Everyone must think and act according to the situation they find themselves in.

— But it is unlikely that anyone will succeed much in this. In the Donetsk, Luhansk regions and in Crimea, almost the entire male population was snatched and driven forward as cannon fodder…

— Unfortunately, I have to agree with you. They indeed have terrible, but at the same time effective, tools to force a person to run to a dead end.

— The United Transitional Cabinet officially recognized the participants of the Belarusian partisan resistance as defenders of independence. Is there currently an infrastructure capable of supporting new resistance within the country if Belarus becomes involved in the war?

— Based on our current capabilities and taking into account the fact that a harsh police regime has been established in Belarus, I personally am against activating those people who are ready for resistance, for more radical actions, at this time.

Because this will only lead to new victims and new arrests of people. When the situation is at a breaking point, when the throne under Lukashenka begins to shake, then there can be different scenarios.

Then we will be able to activate our supporters of change. There are many of them. Even after the events of the last six years, the majority of Belarusians who opposed the regime remained in the country. And they have not changed their point of view.

• 21
• 0
• 5
• 6
• 0
• 2
• 0
• 0