Iran threatened to withdraw from the World Cup. Who could replace them?

The Iranian national football team has participated in six World Cups but has never advanced from the group stage. Photo: Gao Meng/VCG via Getty Images

The Iranian national team, which qualified for the tournament, is scheduled to play all its group stage matches in June in the USA: two in Inglewood (against New Zealand and Belgium), and one in Seattle (against Egypt). There are serious doubts about whether this is possible, writes Sports.ru.

Mehdi Taj, president of the Iranian football federation, stated that after the escalation of the military conflict, it is difficult to "look optimistically at the World Cup" and that he personally considers the national team's participation in the tournament unlikely. Taj emphasized that the final decision rests with the state.

In short: FIFA decides. In detail: FIFA decides "at its own discretion."

Specific criteria are not stipulated. Common sense suggests that the decision should be based on sporting principles.

According to the rules, if a national team withdraws from the World Cup 30 or more days before its first match, it will be fined from 277,000 euros (250,000 Swiss francs); if less than 30 days, from 554,000 euros (500,000 Swiss francs).

If it withdraws during the tournament, it may be banned from the next World Cup. In all cases, it will be asked to compensate for financial damages incurred by FIFA and the organizers.

Immediately, one recalls the epic replacement of Yugoslavia by Denmark a few days before the start of Euro 1992 — due to the military conflict in the Balkans.

Although this case doesn't fully fit, because the Euro is organized by UEFA, and the World Cup by FIFA. Back then, the replacement was made precisely according to sporting principles — the Danes had finished second in their group after Yugoslavia in the qualifiers. Upon learning of UEFA's decision, they interrupted their holidays and then sensationally won the tournament.

More often, FIFA bans someone even before/during qualifications — this happened with the removal of the Russian national team in February 2022 before the playoffs, and Yugoslavia itself was not allowed to qualify for the 1994 World Cup.

In this cycle, the Eritrean national team voluntarily withdrew from the African qualifiers before their first game.

Among withdrawals after qualification, we can recall the distant 1950 World Cup, when three participants — India, Scotland, and Turkey — did not travel to the tournament.

India, contrary to the myth about wanting to play barefoot, officially cited saving money, and unofficially — considered the tournament not serious.

Excessive expenses also scared Turkey, while Scotland's pride prevented them — they had lost an internal tournament to England. The secretary of the local football association, George Graham, stated that Scotland would only accept FIFA's invitation in the status of champions of Great Britain. Perhaps this formulation also hid an unwillingness to spend money.

As a result, only 13 national teams participated in the final tournament instead of 16.

Key conclusion: replacements were sought based on sporting principles, but the countries offered as replacements (Ireland, Portugal, France) also refused to go.

Who is in line for Iran's spot?

It is logical to assume that Iran should be replaced by a team from Asia, from where Japan, South Korea, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Australia (participating in Asian qualifiers) also qualified.

The Iraqi national team could secure a spot at the end of March through intercontinental playoff matches — their opponent will be Bolivia or Suriname.

If Iraq loses the playoffs before a potential withdrawal by Iran, they will likely receive a special invitation. If not, the turn will go to the UAE, who lost the right to play in the playoffs to Iraq.

A possible alternative option is to choose the Asian country with the highest FIFA ranking. Here the candidate is the same — the UAE is only behind teams that have already qualified for the tournament.

Of course, one should not forget FIFA's "own discretion."

Legally, it can invite anyone, but it will most likely try to make a logical decision to avoid further reputational damage.

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