The United States and Israel launched a war with Iran, hoping that the elimination of top Iranian officials would create conditions for regime change or, at least, for the emergence of leaders more inclined to make concessions. Instead, the vacuum is being filled by radical new leaders who show almost no interest in political compromise, both domestically and internationally.
Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami / Anadolu via Getty Images
Despite the hopes of President Trump, who a month after the war began called Iran's new leadership "more reasonable," reality has proven otherwise, writes The Wall Street Journal. The new elite has not only intensified repression domestically through arrests and executions but has also escalated aggressive actions in the region.
Iran has established de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supplies pass, and continues to launch unprovoked attacks on its Arab neighbors. Even unsuccessful negotiations in Islamabad showed that alongside pragmatists in the delegation, there are now individuals who categorically refuse dialogue with the West.
“The war changed the regime — and not for the better. We have created a reality worse than what Iranians faced before the war,” the publication quotes Dani Citrinowicz, who previously headed the Iranian department of Israeli military intelligence.
The Rise of Assassins
Iranian hardliners — anti-Western ideologues intolerant of internal opposition — have always held their place in power circles, and their influence grew under the patronage of the elder Khamenei. But now they completely dominate the country's political and military leadership.
Among them is Iran’s new national security chief, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr. During the Iran-Iraq War, he made a career in the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and later became one of the founders of the "Quds" special unit, which specialized in training foreign groups to attack Iran’s enemies, and also created a paramilitary structure for violence against political opponents.
His views are so radical that even the then-leader of the Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani, temporarily resigned in protest against his methods.
According to the publication's sources, Zolghadr has significant influence over negotiations with the US: he receives reports from representatives and effectively determines their decisions. His predecessor, Ali Larijani, killed last month, was also not a "dove of peace" but was considered a pragmatist and had a reputation as a skilled negotiator.
Other key figures, such as the new IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and military advisor Mohsen Rezaei, are accused of involvement in the 1994 Buenos Aires bombing, where 85 people died.
Vahidi founded the Tehran School of Management, which trains a new generation of politicians under the supervision of the IRGC. As Interior Minister, he led the suppression of women's protests in 2022.
Rezaei, responsible for the strategy during the Iran-Iraq War, which cost 250,000 lives, now promises enemies retribution that goes beyond the "eye for an eye" principle: "It will be a head for an eye, a hand and a leg for an eye."
According to Saeed Gholkar, an expert on Iranian intelligence services from the University of Tennessee, these appointments signify the final victory of the most radical faction, making the prolongation of the conflict more likely.
Mojtaba Khamenei (center) in 2019. Photo: AP Photo / Vahid Salemi
Displacement of Reformists
At the center of these events is Mojtaba Khamenei, who has long been a central figure linking and promoting radical officials and helping to shape Iran's political course.
The rise of Mojtaba and his circle was a direct reaction to the growing popularity of reformists 25 years ago. Already in 2002, the younger Khamenei began promoting ultraconservatives to key positions in state media and propaganda.
He was later accused of helping Mahmoud Ahmadinejad win the presidential elections in 2005 with the help of the Basij and IRGC, and effectively turning the 2009 elections into an "electoral coup."
It was then that Iran definitively turned away from the path of reforms. The 2009 protests, during which people chanted "Death to Mojtaba! May you never become leader!", showed the depth of popular hatred for him, but the security forces managed to suppress the resistance, solidifying the power of the conservative clan.
At its Core – a Radical Messianic Doctrine
As the WSJ writes, the spiritual foundation of the new regime has become a radical messianic doctrine — Mahdavism. Its main ideologue was Mojtaba's teacher, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, who asserted that obedience to the Supreme Leader is equivalent to obedience to God.
Mahdavism, taught in Iranian seminaries and during military training, promotes the idea that building a true Islamic society and destroying Iran's enemies — primarily Israel — will hasten the arrival of Imam Mahdi. Shiites believe that this figure will bring peace and justice to the world.
It goes so far that high-ranking commanders on state TV call on mothers to send their children to war, quoting the Imam: "Kill! Kill!"
Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl / NurPhoto via Getty Images
Mojtaba Khamenei himself previously told his associates about dreams in which he saw himself as Khorasani — a hero from religious legends who is to appear in the historical region of Khorasan to lead forces in support of Mahdi against the enemies of Islam.
The WSJ emphasizes that the apocalyptic doctrine of Mahdavism defines the regime's behavior during the war and justifies actions that might otherwise seem irrational, such as expanding the conflict to the Persian Gulf countries.
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