"You are Moscow's vassal." Belarus is ceasing to be seen separately from Russia

Ladies and gentlemen, I have two pieces of news for you, one good and one bad. The bad news: we are in deep trouble. The good news: everyone loves us. With this thought, I left the annual Polska Polityka Wschodnia conference near Wrocław.

I remember how 20 years ago politicians, diplomats, and experts talked about Belarus there. We were the first topic, they argued about Belarus. This year, the Belarusian topic closed the conference on the last day, when few were able to stay until the end.

There was a time when they not only wanted to listen about Belarus but also tried to hear. Our topic was on the front pages of newspapers, Belarus was part of the conversation about the future of Europe. That time has passed. "5 minutes" for Belarus are over. They don't spare us pleasant words, because it's simply not customary to speak ill of Belarusians. But no one is going to die for us.

When the conference started, my colleague and I invented a game: who would be the first to hear the word Belarus. It was about two hours in, with one phrase — "we cannot forget about Belarus." Over three days, it was mentioned maybe twice.

But more important is **how** Belarus was discussed. Belarus is perceived as an appendage to Russia. With reservations, nuances, apologies, but Belarus is considered a complete vassal of Moscow. Russian troops. Russian nuclear weapons. Russian military interests. Lukashenka, dependent on Putin. Border with Poland and Lithuania. Migrants. Drones. War in Ukraine.

Belarus is gradually disappearing as an independent political problem. This is, perhaps, one of the most dangerous things that have happened to Belarus in recent years.

Wasn't this the kind of "independence" dreamed of by those who for years repeated the mantra that Lukashenka was its guarantor? Well, here you have it. If Lukashenka was needed to preserve independence, then here's the result: the world increasingly ceases to see Belarus separately from Russia.

Our country is simply ceasing to be perceived as a subject, they are ceasing to seek an independent policy towards it. And we are talking about Poland, a country that understands Belarus better than anyone in this world.

The Germans say approximately the same: in the German discussion, Belarus mainly figures as a military ally of Russia and a source of hybrid threat through the migration crisis at the borders. Sometimes Lukashenka is mentioned — "apart from that, nothing."

The impression after several days of conversations was unpleasant. After the conclusion, I wrote to the former Polish ambassador to Minsk asking what, in his opinion, was interesting about Belarus at this meeting. "If it weren't for your question, no one would have even mentioned it there." Belarus was mentioned in relation to some trifle.

The conversation was about my modest question to the conference participants: why Poland issues few visas to Belarusians, why residence permits are issued slowly, why Belarusians have problems in banks. The answer was simple — you are Moscow's vassal, and we must care about security.

The Belarusian democratic community received unprecedented international political capital after 2020. But a significant part of its actors are now spending political energy on themselves: who represents whom, who is more legitimate, and who has fallen out with whom.

This is a real defeat of recent years. Not that less is being written about Belarus. But that others are gradually ceasing to imagine Belarus without Russia. And this is bad news not only for the democratic forces but also for the regime that dragged the country into such a swamp from which it will not emerge whole.

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Texts in the "Opinions" section may or may not coincide with the position of the Editorial Board.

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