Grim predictions are coming true. Why the West is choosing the "Don't piss off grandpa" strategy and what to expect next.
A year ago, in November 2024, "Nasha Niva" published an article by Danila Lutkevich, "2025 could be a year of change for Belarus, changes that Belarusians were afraid of." A significant portion of the author's predictions have come true. The journalist explains why this happened and makes a new prediction about what to expect in the near future.
The main ideas of last year's article were that the West would eventually revise its policy towards Belarus, choosing the tactic of "not angering the old men." Recent events have confirmed this forecast.
The main requirement for Lukashenko was not to stop the repressions and hold fair elections, but primarily not to interfere with the lives of his neighbors and not to create additional tension in the region. The situation with the borders perfectly reflects this.
Poland has resumed operations at two border crossing points at once, although it had previously repeatedly stated that "Bobrowniki" would only open after Andrzej Poczobut was free.
This does not mean that there were no such demands or agreements. It is quite possible that the Poles simply made concessions in some sense and allowed Lukashenko to, so to speak, save face, so that it would not look like he was given an ultimatum and he fulfilled it.
Therefore, the quick release of Poczobut still looks more than realistic. In addition, we have already seen that just a couple of days after the opening of the border, two Catholic priests were released: Henryk Okołotowicz and Andrzej Juchniewicz, previously sentenced to 11 and 13 years in prison.
But the release of Poczobut was not the only thing Poland expected from Lukashenko. As statistics show, the number of attempts to illegally cross the border has also decreased significantly recently.
The other day, for the first time in a long time, neither Poland, Latvia, nor Lithuania recorded a single attempt to illegally cross the border between Belarus and the EU, although after a three-day break, attempts on the Polish and Latvian directions resumed, but their number was still not as large compared to what was observed earlier.
Poland does not hide that it is trying to play with Lukashenko
Commenting on the resumption of operations at two border crossing points with Belarus, Deputy Foreign Minister Martin Bosacki said that this gesture was not made for the Lukashenko regime, but for the people and the development of business in Podlasie.
Bosacki also confirmed that Poland is starting to play a game with Lukashenko or the Belarusian authorities that "should to some extent reduce tensions on our eastern border." And he added that the Americans are playing the same game.
Will the borders start to open?
This approach is quite understandable, since it has become obvious over several years that closing border crossing points does not particularly affect Lukashenko. At the same time, disruptions at the border between Belarus and the European Union affect the interests not only of Belarus and the three EU countries that share a common border with us. This is a transit artery between the West and the East, in the normal operation of which not only Europe is interested, but also China and the countries of Central Asia, and on which not only Belarusians earn money, but also Poles, Lithuanians and Latvians.
Therefore, in the basic scenario, it can be assumed that after the completion of the reconstruction of the highway in "Kuznitsa-Bruzgi", traffic for buses and passenger transport will resume.
Lithuania's early opening of the border also indicates that closing the border is not something that reduces tensions in the region.
In the emerging schedule, it may happen that the Lukashenko regime will seek to normalize relations with Poland as much as possible. This is beneficial not only from an economic and logistical point of view, but also perfectly suitable for demonstrating that it is better to have a dialogue with him (even if not public) than to demonstratively put pressure on him.
And such a pragmatic position of Poland will look understandable, since it is better to have peace on the eastern border and a satisfied business in the border region than to catch migrants and suffer losses due to the closed border.
Moreover, in both cases, the Lukashenko regime will not go anywhere.
Not all dictators are equally harmful
Thus, Belarus - to the grief of Belarusians - may become a second Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, or, if you like, Azerbaijan. The political regimes in all three countries, although different, are very far from democratic.
Emomali Rahmon has been in charge of Tajikistan for several years longer than Lukashenko has been in charge of Belarus. And criminal liability for comments and likes on social networks was abolished there only this year. As of May 2025, more than 1,500 people were in Tajik prisons for their online activity.
In Turkmenistan, where the current president Serdar Berdimuhamedov inherited power from his father, the situation with democracy and human rights is even worse. At the same time, the country is neutral, so there are not many questions about it from Western countries.
In Azerbaijan, power was inherited by Ilham Aliyev, the opposition there is crushed, and according to human rights activists, there are about 350 political prisoners.
The main difference between Belarus and these countries is not only that we are geographically located in the center of Europe, but also that the Lukashenko regime not only arranges terror against its citizens, but also does not allow its neighbors to live in peace.
If we analyze all the sanctions and restrictions against Belarus, it becomes obvious that the regime's behavior caused a really serious reaction only when its actions affected the interests of other countries.
The first such example is the forced landing of a plane with Protasevich on board, which was performing an intra-European flight from Greece to Lithuania.
The second is the artificial creation of a migration crisis.
But even this is a trifle compared to when Lukashenko made Belarus a co-aggressor in the war with Ukraine. It was for providing territory for the attack that our country received the toughest of all restrictions.
No falsification of elections, repression, torture and other atrocities against Belarusians had such consequences.
Last year I said that if the alleged negotiations on Ukraine take place in 2025, then new rules of interaction between the West and Russia will be built along with them.
And that in such a scenario, Belarus may remain "a territory undoubtedly assigned to Russia," and neither the United States nor the European Union will object to this.
Events of recent days indicate that tectonic shifts in the Ukrainian direction may still occur within 2025 or in the first half of 2026.
The Trump's peace plan published the other day shows that it was created to appease and placate Russia.
Whether it will be signed in the form that was leaked to the media, and whether any progress will be made at all in resolving the war, is unknown, but its content and the rhetoric of the Trump administration clearly indicate that at least the States are ready to draw new red lines and form new rules in the relationship between the West and Russia.
All these changes that are happening and may happen in the foreseeable future - do not bode well for Belarus, if you look at them in a global sense.
Such a decision leaves our country in the "zone of influence of Moscow", and this, like the division of Europe after World War II, may be for many decades.
In some minor issues, such as opening borders, returning ambassadors and lifting certain sanctions that primarily harmed ordinary Belarusians, and not the Lukashenko regime, one can see a positive, but one should definitely not hope for truly tangible changes in Belarus without changes in Russia in this scenario.
This does not mean that the European future of Belarus will cease to depend on the desire of Belarusians themselves. But a lot will depend on the behavior of the West and, first of all, the European Union as a whole and our neighbors in the EU in particular.
Two scenarios for the development of events in Belarus
The countries of Europe have a choice: to learn to more clearly distinguish the people of Belarus from the Lukashenko regime, or to put an equal sign between them and completely and completely come to terms with the fact that this is almost part of Russia, and Belarus and its residents should be treated as Russia and Russians.
The first option is positive for Belarusians here and now and for Belarus in the future. The European Union can support civil society, Belarusian initiatives and the media. It can resume the normal issuance of visas, not create obstacles for those who want to travel around Europe, work there or study in European universities.
The West can continue the struggle for the hearts and minds of Belarusians, so that pro-European sentiments can develop in society, so that people can see with their own eyes that the West is decaying only in the releases of Belarusian and Russian propaganda.
The example of 2020 perfectly showed how society can develop in the opposite direction in a pro-Russian dictatorship, and the majority of the population may be against the current regime, even taking into account the fact that it cannot overthrow it.
This will not give an immediate result, but it will build and strengthen the foundation so that when the next window of opportunity appears, Belarus will finally be able to free itself and become part of Europe, and not the "Russian world" in the worst sense of the expression.
And if the West continues the policy of isolating Belarusians from Europe, then it will not be at all surprising if we begin to observe how sympathy for Russia and the Lukashenko regime grows among the population.
After Donald Trump's return to power, it became obvious that the West in the future will be more cautious in its desire to help the former countries of the USSR in their desire to break out of the Moscow orbit, since the case with Ukraine has shown that this can be painful and expensive for everyone. Therefore, the strategy of behavior in the style of "do not anger the old men" is the most obvious.
We are on the verge of drawing new red lines and building a new strategy of relations between the West and Russia.
Unfortunately, our country itself in this division remains on the same side as Russia, but in which direction Belarusian society will develop will largely depend not only on you and me, but also on the EU's strategy towards Belarusians.
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