Scientists believe that a volcanic eruption around 1345 may have set in motion a chain of events that led to the deadliest pandemic in Europe—the Black Death. Volcanic activity caused a climate disaster, which in turn led to poor harvests, writes the BBC.
To avoid famine, Italian city-states were forced to import grain from the Black Sea region. Along with the grain, they brought fleas, the carriers of the disease, to Europe.
The "perfect storm" caused by climate shock, famine, and international trade in the Middle Ages serves as a reminder of how diseases can originate and spread in a globalized (and warmer) world, experts say.
"Of course, the combination of factors that led to the plague epidemic seems rare. But in the context of climate change, in a globalized world, the likelihood of new zoonotic (transmitted to humans from animals - ed.) diseases emerging, which can then develop into a pandemic, increases," says Dr. Ulf Büntgen from the University of Cambridge.
"This is especially relevant now, given our recent experience with COVID-19," he adds.
The "Black Death" - an epidemic of bubonic plague - led to the death of, by some estimates, up to half of the population of Europe in 1348-1349.
The disease is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which is carried by rodents (such as rats) and fleas.
Scientists suggest that the epidemic began in Central Asia, and thanks to trade, it spread to Europe.
The exact sequence of events, however, has eluded scientists.
Now, researchers from the University of Cambridge and the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe in Leipzig have filled in the gaps in this picture.
They studied tree rings and ice cores (ice samples, which are often used to study climate change) to understand what the climatic conditions were like during the plague epidemic.
The data suggest that in about 1345, volcanic activity led to a significant drop in temperature for several years ahead due to ash and gases blocking sunlight.
This, in turn, led to poor harvests in the Mediterranean region. To avoid famine, Italian city-states began buying grain from traders from the Black Sea region, thereby allowing the deadly bacterium to take hold in Europe.
How the Black Death Spread Across Europe
Historian Martin Bauch, a specialist in medieval climate and epidemiology from the Leibniz Institute, says that the combination of climatic events and a complex food supply system led to a "perfect storm."
"For over a hundred years, influential Italian cities traded between the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions, allowing them to quickly implement measures when the threat of famine loomed," he says.
"But in the end, these measures led to a much more terrible disaster," the scientist concludes.
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