Yaraslau Ramanchuk forecasts when the war will end. And tells what he is currently doing and how Babaryka's statements shocked him
We spoke with economist Yaraslau Ramanchuk, a presidential candidate in 2010, about recent high-profile events and his life in Ukraine during the war.
Yaraslau Ramanchuk. Photo: Facebook
What Ramanchuk is currently doing
Yaraslau Ramanchuk is 59 years old. He was one of ten candidates in the 2010 presidential elections. At that time, the Central Election Commission gave him third place, showing 1.98%. The Belarusian politician and economist has been living in Ukraine since 2021.
During the conversation with "Nasha Niva" (which took place on December 19, the 15th anniversary of the Square protests), Ramanchuk was at his home in Kyiv without electricity, which was more the norm than an exception. Without electricity in Kyiv, one now has to spend 8 to 16 hours a day.
But after so many years of war, people have adapted to difficult living conditions, says Ramanchuk, although there is public irritation caused by internal corruption.
Ramanchuk talks about what he is currently doing.
"I am the president of the International Institute of Liberty. This is a think tank created by Ukrainian businessmen and intellectuals who focus on promoting the ideas, theory, and practice of a free market and capitalism. Roughly speaking, this is what I have been doing in Belarus for the last 30 years within the framework of the Mises Scientific Research Center. There was no such think tank in Ukraine before," Ramanchuk notes.
The economist explains that this work involves writing scientific materials, developing various documents and programs on economic policy. The experience of conducting systemic economic reforms in Ukraine will be very valuable for post-Lukashenka's free Belarus, Ramanchuk believes.
Screenshot: ilibertyinstitute.org
Simultaneously with his work at the institute, Yaraslau Ramanchuk is a guest lecturer at the Ukrainian Catholic University.
"This is one of the best private universities in Ukraine. I teach macroeconomics to students there in English. At the same time, I was an advisor to the National Security and Defense Council, where we worked on Ukraine's economic doctrine," Ramanchuk says.
He is also the chief economist and ideologist in the civic association "Vilna Natsiia" (Free Nation).
In February 2026, Ramanchuk plans to present another book, titled "The Ukrainian Business Platform." Ramanchuk published his first book in Ukraine in the summer of 2023 (it was called "New West. Ukrainian Dream").
Yaraslau Ramanchuk. Photo provided by the subject of the material
Due to his workload, the politician has not uploaded new videos to his YouTube channel (which has 21 thousand subscribers), where he previously analyzed the Belarusian economy, for almost a year. However, he appears weekly as an expert on the "Zvichayna Ranok" (Ordinary Morning) channel.
When will the war end?
In a previous interview with "Nasha Niva" in early March 2024, Ramanchuk speculated that the war would be protracted. At that time, he referred to the viewpoint of politician Andrei Illarionov, who, at the beginning of the conflict, said that the war would end in the second half of 2025 at best.
"Now the situation has changed, a powerful, absolutely unpredictable factor, a 'black swan' in the form of ginger Trump, has appeared," says Yaraslau Ramanchuk.
He predicts that the war will most likely continue for about two more years. "This is not an assessment, it's just a feeling. Based on the current trends, most likely, 2027 will be the year when we should expect, to one degree or another, the end or, let's say, a pause in this conflict," the economist believes.
Ramanchuk notes that, despite negative external and internal factors, there is no apathy, dismay, or "let's surrender" sentiment in Ukrainian society.
Yaraslau Ramanchuk. Photo provided by the subject of the material
"The spirit of Ukrainians is an absolutely phenomenal thing that energizes anyone who comes here. To this day, polls show that 65-70% of Ukrainians believe in victory and the complete liberation of the country."
Scandal with Mindich and Zelenskyy's rating
Commenting on the recent corruption scandal surrounding "Energoatom" (one of its main figures is Timur Mindich, co-owner of "Kvartal 95" studio and an associate of Volodymyr Zelenskyy), Ramanchuk states that internal corruption, unfortunately, did not disappear during the war, but only subsided for the first six months.
"This was an absolutely ideal time for carrying out deep systemic reforms, which the Ukrainian authorities missed. Although we — and I personally — prepared proposals, a program was ready, but unfortunately, the Ukrainian 'deep state' mobilized and returned.
Therefore, we hear about all these scandals with 'Mindichgate,' with the former Minister of Energy [Herman] Halushchenko, and if you remember, it all started with eggs at 17 hryvnias apiece — back then it was a vastly inflated price for ordinary eggs for the army."
Ramanchuk believes that the fight against corruption is not so much the result of the work of law enforcement agencies as it is of investigative journalists and that part of the anti-corruption infrastructure that has been working in Ukraine for quite some time.
"But what, it must be admitted, Ukrainians do not do — they do not eliminate the sources of corruption, they simply try to find people who will work differently in these positions within this system. And it doesn't work that way.
Therefore, there is irritation in society, there was already a "cardboard" Maidan in defense of the SAP and NABU.
Then people came out to Maidan in support of reallocating resources to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and not to local authorities' expenses, which, in my opinion, are also enormous and inflated. When 'Mindichgate' happened, naturally, many questions arose regarding how Zelenskyy is involved or not involved, what he is doing or not doing," the economist explains.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Photo: UNIAN
According to Ramanchuk, all these scandals, especially the last one, affected Zelenskyy's rating and public trust in the authorities.
"But as soon as this happened, against this backdrop, Trump's statements and pressure on Zelenskyy resurfaced — and his rating again rose to 61%. A similar situation occurred after Trump's conflict with Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.
At such moments, the people unite around the president. Because Zelenskyy is not so much a manager or leader who must be responsible for the state of internal systems, as he is a person who embodies the defense of the country in negotiations with the outside world."
At the same time, the economist notes, when there is no external pressure, people immediately pay more attention to internal problems that hinder the economy.
However, Ramanchuk is confident that, despite the problems, most of Ukrainian society is not ready to surrender and make concessions to Russia — in particular, regarding the handover of territories in exchange for a possible end to the war.
"Supporters of such an approach exist, but they are in the minority. I think that if a referendum theoretically took place, 10-15% of Ukrainians would vote for surrendering territories," Ramanchuk believes.
Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Kyiv. Photo: "Nasha Niva"
Expulsion of Belarusian political prisoners and Babaryka's ambiguous statements
More than 100 political prisoners, including Viktar Babaryka and Maryia Kalesnikava, were recently expelled to Ukraine. This event, very important for Belarus, was barely noticeable in Ukrainian society, according to the politician's observations.
"The Ukrainian people as a whole reacted well to the fact that the country accepted political prisoners from Belarus. Everyone understands that this was a forced expulsion, that Lukashenka is an enemy of Ukraine and an accomplice of Russia. People who are enemies of Lukashenka, naturally, were perceived positively."
Ramanchuk calls the very fact of expelling political prisoners to warring Ukraine an attempt by Lukashenka and Putin "to pit us against each other": so that in case Ukraine refused to accept the people, they could show how "bad" Ukrainians are.
"I think they were counting on a provocation and exactly such an informational effect, but nothing came of it. Ukrainians met everyone, fed them, warmed them.
Generally speaking, for Ukraine, the expulsion of more than 100 Belarusian political prisoners was not a top event. It coincided with American news, shelling of Odesa, power outages. That is, if the news about Belarusians made it into the top 10, it was somewhere at the very end of the list," Ramanchuk believes.
Accordingly, Viktar Babaryka's ambiguous statements about the belonging of Crimea and the origins of the war did not cause much resonance in society.
As for Yaraslau Ramanchuk personally, Babaryka's statements shocked him.
Viktar Babaryka in Chernihiv on December 14, 2025. Photo: Maksym Kishka Anadolu / Getty Images
"Babaryka was and remains a person who has not realized the completely different situation and status of the Nazi Kremlin regime, has not realized the destructiveness of the Belarusian totalitarian system," the politician complains.
Ramanchuk adds that even in 2020, Viktar Babaryka was not his candidate. The politician believes that if Babaryka and Kalesnikava do not change and clearly articulate their position in the near future, they should be treated accordingly.
"If they do not make clear statements regarding Russia's criminal war against Ukraine and do not unambiguously speak out against the aggressor Lukashenka in the next week or two, then there is nothing to talk about with them.
As for Ukraine, their statements are not particularly discussed here. Fortunately, Belarus here is associated with Tsikhanouskaya, with the Kalinoŭski Regiment, and other Belarusians who are here," Ramanchuk believes.
Difficulties with legalization and Ukrainian bureaucracy
Ramanchuk admits that he has to fight Ukrainian bureaucracy every year when it's time to renew his temporary residence permit.
"I have been living in Ukraine since 2021, I have a permanent job, I am a well-known person in Ukrainian government and public circles, I often appear on television, I have documents stating that I am an advisor, but I still have to renew documents every year, and the bureaucracy in Ukraine is wild," the economist notes.
Yaraslau Ramanchuk with Mykhailo Podolyak and Anatol Liabedzka at a meeting in Kyiv. Photo: Yaraslau Ramanchuk's Facebook page
Ramanchuk notes that Ukraine has issued almost no permanent residence permits to Belarusians during the war years, but he hopes that he will be able to obtain this status next year.
"Overall, I believe that the issue of lifting restrictions on citizens of Belarus, especially in the case of permanent residence in Ukraine, should be raised," he says.
«Nasha Niva» — the bastion of Belarus
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