15 meters a day. The Russian army in Ukraine set an anti-record for the pace of advance in 100 years of modern war history

Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov reports on successes achieved to Vladimir Putin. Photo: Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP

At the cost of colossal losses, averaging 35,000 people per month, Russian General Staff generals managed to take control of 0.8% of Ukrainian territory last year (4831 square kilometers) and 0.6% in 2024 (3604 square kilometers). Moreover, in key areas, the Russian offensive proved even slower than operations in World War I, which was famous for protracted trench warfare without frontline advances.

Thus, the offensive on Chasiv Yar, which began in February 2024, is progressing at a speed of 15 meters per day, CSIS calculated: in less than two years, the army advanced only 10 kilometers and was unable to fully take control of the city.

The movement towards Kupyansk, which started in November 2024, proceeded at a speed of 23 meters per day. The operation to capture Pokrovsk, which began in February 2024 after bloody battles for Avdiivka, is advancing at a speed of 70 meters per day. Having advanced 50 kilometers in 2 years, Russian forces now control "most of the city", CSIS experts note.

For comparison: during the Battle of the Somme, considered one of the bloodiest battles of World War I, the French army moved at a speed of 80 meters per day. And in the Battle of Belleau Wood in 1918, when American infantry stopped the German offensive, the speed of advance was 410 meters per day.

Russia's meager frontal gains came at the cost of losses that no other army in the world has suffered since World War II, CSIS emphasizes: from February 2022 to December 2025, the troops lost 1.2 million people, including up to 325,000 killed. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are estimated by the center at approximately 600,000 people, including 140,000 killed.

The Russian army showed itself to be "weak", the report states: based on the results of the last two years of the campaign, it has practically nothing to show in terms of new territorial gains.

Павялічыць

In the first 5 weeks of the invasion, Russian troops took control of 115,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. But already in April 2022, 35,000 square kilometers were lost, and by November, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had recaptured a total of 75,000 square kilometers. Currently, the Russian army controls 120,000 square kilometers in Ukraine, or approximately 20% of its territory (including Crimea, the "DPR", and "LPR", which were under Moscow's control before the invasion). During the "SMO" (Special Military Operation) itself, troops captured 75,000 square kilometers, CSIS notes.

In 1394 days of the German-Soviet war, the Red Army reached Berlin, while the Russian army barely reached Pokrovsk, located 500 km from Kyiv. These results, write the center's experts, "fall significantly short of the campaign's goals", which, as state propaganda claimed, would end with the fall of Kyiv in three days.

However, Russia's strategy is one of attrition, CSIS states: the Kremlin is ready to accept high losses in the hope of ultimately wearing down the Ukrainian army and society.

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