Poland Expects 5-7 Fold Increase in Belarusian Applications for EU Long-Term Resident Card

In 2026-2028, Belarusians will submit 5-7 times more applications in Poland for obtaining EU long-term resident status than in 2022-2025.

One of the basic requirements for a foreigner to apply for a resident card is legal stay in Poland for five years. As of September 1, 2026, only 2.7 thousand Belarusians are legalized in Poland through a resident card. However, a major wave of Belarusian emigration occurred precisely in 2021 and subsequent years, and for such emigrants, the five-year period ends precisely starting from 2026.

This will create an additional burden on state authorities — the 'urzędy' (offices). It will be uneven. The main burden, according to UdSC's forecast, will fall on three regions with the largest share of the permanent Belarusian diaspora: Mazowieckie, Podlaskie, and Wielkopolskie Voivodeships.

Mazowieckie Voivodeship (Warsaw and its agglomeration), according to UdSC, will take on about 50% of the entire wave. A surge in the number of applications for EU long-term resident status is predicted here, by approximately 500%, meaning an increase from an average of 500 cases per year to more than 3 thousand proceedings annually.

In Podlaskie Voivodeship (Białystok and the border region), due to its geographical proximity to Belarus and strong cross-border ties, about 20% of the Belarusian diaspora is concentrated. Here, an increase in the number of cases by approximately 450% is predicted (from 200 applications to more than 1.1 thousand per year).

In Wielkopolskie Voivodeship (Poznań) — a large industrial and logistics center — an increase in the number of cases by approximately 400% is expected (from about 150 to more than 750 applications per year).

Shortage of Places for Certification Exams

The surging growth will expose another problem — passing the language exam. To obtain a resident card, it is required to confirm knowledge of the Polish language at a level no lower than B1. The Office for Foreigners predicts that the mass application process for resident cards "may lead to a shortage of places in examination centers and a delay in the application preparation process."

More Applications for Citizenship

In parallel, in 2026-2028, according to UdSC forecasts, the number of cases for Belarusians seeking recognition as Polish citizens will increase. This primarily concerns those who, in 2021-2024, received permanent residence permits based on Polish roots or the Pole's Card.

“In the coming years, this process will permanently change the legal and demographic structure of the diaspora, transforming a significant portion of migrants from Belarus into full-fledged citizens of the Republic of Poland, possessing all electoral and social rights,” UdSC notes.

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