Pozner: The West wanted to provoke Putin, and Russia will ultimately win

Vladimir Pozner gained widespread recognition in the 1980s as a host of Soviet-American telebridges. In the 1990s, he worked for American CNBC, and from 2008 to 2022, he hosted an author's program on Russia's "Channel One."

In an interview with the Frontline YouTube channel, Pozner was asked to explain his earlier words that most Russians believe the war with Ukraine was provoked by the West.

Pozner began his explanation with American foreign policy after the collapse of the USSR. He mentioned the so-called "Wolfowitz Doctrine" — a draft Defense Planning Guidance document for the US, developed in the Pentagon in 1992.

According to the journalist, the main idea of this document was that in a unipolar world, all countries must submit to the interests of the US as the sole superpower, and Russia should by no means be allowed to "return" and become a great power again.

Pozner named NATO's eastward expansion as one of the key factors. In his opinion, in the 1990s, Russia did not pose a threat to its neighbors, so admitting former Warsaw Pact countries into the alliance was a mistake. He claims that in Moscow, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO was already perceived as an existential threat.

"Let's not forget: Ukraine shares a border with Russia, just like Mexico with the United States. Would the United States allow Mexico to suddenly become a country that is not pro-American? (..) So, the Russian point of view was — whether it's right or not, that's not the point — that Ukraine's entry into NATO is an existential threat to Russia.

And Putin said many times: 'We will not allow this.' So, did the West think he was bluffing, or did the West think he was serious?

I personally believe that the West knew he was serious and wanted to provoke him. Should he have succumbed to this provocation? That's another question, but they wanted to provoke him."

According to Pozner, the war "definitely did not make Russia more powerful, definitely did not help Russia"; it created an anti-Russian atmosphere worldwide.

"And what has Russia gained from this?" Pozner asked rhetorically and continued:

"Of course, on the battlefield, Russia will ultimately win, there's no doubt about that. Simply many more people, much more weaponry, and so on. But what does victory actually mean?"

In his further reflections, the 92-year-old journalist disagreed with the view that Russians' perception of a Western-provoked conflict could be explained solely by propaganda:

"Yes, propaganda plays its role, but I truly believe that in this specific sense, there is a feeling here that Russia was supposedly provoked, supposedly drawn into this story by force."

He compared Moscow's attitude towards Ukraine's potential NATO membership to the US reaction to the deployment of Soviet missiles in Cuba in 1962.

"What do you do if they don't want to listen to you?"

When the host asked Pozner whether the "destruction of Ukraine" could be a response to the perceived threat from NATO, he mused:

"And what is the answer to that if you don't go to war? How do you stop [it] if you have the feeling that your country is truly threatened by what might happen? What do you do if they don't want to listen to you, if you say: 'Listen, don't do this, please. You understand that we cannot allow this,' and they still go ahead and do it? [...] Do you just sit back and say: 'Okay'? You agree with it. That, of course, is a sign of weakness, and that's also a very bad thing in politics."

At the same time, Pozner emphasized that he himself does not undertake to decide whether the war should have been started: "I have no answer to that. Thank God I don't have to make such decisions."

"Russia has an enormous advantage"

Speaking about how the current war might end, Pozner admitted that he does not know the answer.

"I really don't know. (...) Obviously, Russia has an enormous advantage in weaponry and manpower. And I wouldn't be surprised if, say, in a month or so, the Ukrainian front collapses.

And then what? How to establish a lasting peace after all these years? What are the conditions that each side is willing or forced to accept?"

According to Pozner, the only way out of the deadlock is mutual compromises, similar to those made by John Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, when Soviet ships turned back in exchange for a secret withdrawal of American missiles from Turkey.

"These were two statesmen who agreed to take a step back and even, in one case, lose face, which was Khrushchev's case. And I feel that the only way to end this war is for both sides, in one form or another, to take a step back. And not just for the sides… it's not just Ukraine and Russia, because NATO plays an extremely active role in this war. One could say it's almost a proxy war," Pozner believes.

"A statement against the war could be dangerous for me"

Pozner was asked why he had not publicly spoken out against the war.

"I know, I know I'm criticized for it. I'll say two things. First, I believe that any statement about the war in this case will not help and will not stop the war. It could be dangerous for me, but that's secondary. I'm 92 years old, I've lived a long and full life, and I truly fear nothing. But I have relatives, and I don't want them to suffer because of what I might say.

But, more importantly, I honestly don't think my words matter. You say I'm an important voice in Russia. It seems to me that's a bit of an exaggeration. Yes, I'm a famous journalist, and people watched my program precisely because I, how should I put it, tried never to express my own opinion. I'm not the important one. The important one is the person I'm interviewing or the topic I'm discussing.

I travel a lot, and I've been asked many times in the West, and not only there: 'What do you think about this?' And I replied: 'I don't think it's that important. You just want a sensation, so you can write: Vladimir Pozner said this, that, and something else.' I don't play that game," he answered.

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