Climate change and growing demand for energy resources may exacerbate the confrontation for control over rivers in one of the most densely populated regions of the world. The Economist reports on the details.
Politics surrounding the major rivers of South Asia are almost never calm, but recent months have shown a particular degree of tension. In late October, Afghanistan announced plans to build dams on the Kabul River, sparking outrage in neighboring Pakistan. This occurred against the backdrop of border clashes between the countries. Meanwhile, in Bangladesh, thousands of people protested against what they see as India's excessive influence on the flows of the Teesta River, a tributary of the Brahmaputra.
The real trigger was also the India-Pakistan story: After the terrorist attack in Kashmir in April, India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and has not yet resumed it. And in New Delhi, they are anxiously watching China's plans to build a giant dam on the Brahmaputra in Tibet — about 30 km from the Indian border. This $167 billion project could become the largest hydroelectric power plant in the world. The consequences for downstream countries, as well as for the ecology of the region, could be catastrophic.
All these events indicate that the region's water policy is becoming increasingly dangerous. The growing demand for "green" electricity is pushing South Asian countries to expand hydropower. At the same time, melting glaciers and climate change are making water levels unpredictable, threatening the existence of about 2 billion people.
Why Water Has Become an Important Factor in Politics
The region's three main rivers — the Indus, the Ganges, and the Brahmaputra — originate in the Himalayan glaciers. The Indus originates in China, passes through Indian Ladakh and disputed Kashmir, and then flows through Pakistan to the Arabian Sea. The Brahmaputra also originates in China and then passes through India and Bangladesh. Nepal, although not on the Brahmaputra, is located in the vast Ganges-Brahmaputra basin, making it part of a common water system.
This "intertwined" landscape requires constant allocation and coordination of water — but this is where the problems begin.
The region is riddled with old conflicts and rivalries. India and Pakistan have been arguing over Kashmir for decades. India and China have sharp border disagreements. Bangladesh and Nepal see their neighbors — especially India and China — as a threat of excessive influence. In such an atmosphere, water easily becomes a lever of pressure.
According to the Pacific Institute (USA), between 2019 and 2023, there were 191 water-related conflicts in South Asia. Only the Middle East has a more tense situation.
Dams as a Symbol of Power
The construction of dams is becoming an instrument of geopolitical influence. Chinese dams in Tibet help control the restive region. Pakistan, with the support of China, is building a hydroelectric power plant in the part of Kashmir it controls to consolidate its territorial claims. In response to the Chinese project on the Brahmaputra, India is planning its own mega-dam.
This infrastructure arms race creates problems for neighbors. Residents of Bangladesh often complain that India discharges water from its dams without warning, causing floods and chaos downstream.
South Asia is one of the most water-scarce regions in the world, but the demand for water and energy is only growing. Urbanization and the data center boom require stable electricity. Hydropower looks attractive because it does not depend on the sun or wind.
Pakistan already gets a fifth of its electricity from hydroelectric power plants and plans to increase this share. India intends to increase its capacity by 50% by 2032, considering the construction of about 200 new dams. Nepal, which produces more energy than it consumes, has begun exporting surpluses to India and Bangladesh.
The Need for Diplomacy
To avoid direct conflict, diplomatic channels are necessary. Experts warn: building dams without international treaties is a direct path to disputes. In addition, dams fragment rivers and destroy ecosystems, which is especially dangerous in the delicate climate of the Himalayas.
The accelerating melting of glaciers and the changing nature of monsoons require not the suspension of old agreements, but their renewal.
There have been no direct wars over water in the region yet. Countries even continue to exchange data: for example, India still transmits flood forecasts to Pakistan. However, the river management system remains a chaotic mosaic of bilateral treaties.
Against the backdrop of climate change and energy hunger, this is very dangerous.
Belarusian "promised family prosperity" and enlisted for war. Disappeared without a trace in a 'meat assault' — and his wife cries that there's nothing to eat 2222
Comments