Statkevich proposed a slogan that will unite the majority of Belarusians

The Ministry of Defense showed how "Oreshnik" went on combat duty

A month ago, I published an article "Apocalypse Tomorrow. Death Zone on the 'Balcony'." This material had a certain resonance. And the development of events, new information convinces me of the correctness of the expressed warnings. Therefore, I must return to the topic of that article. Let's reflect on the motives of those who are ready to create a nuclear apocalypse on our land, and their capabilities to do so.

The situation in our region is becoming increasingly complex and tense. Moscow has clearly lost Ukraine. The attack on Ukraine was for the Kremlin a continuation of the long-lost Cold War with NATO. The fact is that the idea of imperial revenge has been and is an obsessive idea for a significant part of Russian society. One could even say – the modern Russian national idea, which the ruling regime in Russia considers and uses. Failure in Ukraine, especially against the backdrop of economic difficulties, could lead to a social and political crisis and a threat to power. Russians will forgive the tsar millions of their own, and even more so others' victims, but they will not forgive defeats.

For autocrats, absolute power is a value in itself. For them, it is a strong drug that cannot be given up. They identify themselves with the state, and some even with their country. For example, they call their political opponents "enemies of the state." And the Russian president claims that if the Russian Federation fails to annex a few hundred more square kilometers of Ukrainian territory to its 17.1 million km territory, then "Russia will perish."

I don't think our eastern neighbor will perish because of this, as it somehow existed from 1991 to 2014 without foreign lands. Another matter is that Putin himself might lose power, which, in his imagination, is probably a catastrophe equivalent to the demise of all Russia. Loss of power threatens not only the usual way of life of autocrats, but often their very lives. Therefore, for the sake of power, they are ready for anything.

Having lost in Ukraine, Moscow must seek other victims for a new attempt at a "small victorious war," for another attempt to defeat the West.

It is most likely that the Baltic countries are planned as the next target of attack. But the confidence of Russian generals in their success, after four years of fruitless and costly war with Ukraine, has significantly decreased. They no longer count on a successful blitzkrieg, because European countries, albeit slowly, are preparing to repel.

And prolonging the conflict, if their European allies come to the aid of the Baltic countries, leads to Moscow's inevitable defeat. And not only because of the difference in economic, demographic, and technological potential, but also because of the sharp decrease in the combat potential of Russian soldiers compared to the past.

The fact is that the most successful wars of the Russian Empire were waged using slaves as soldiers.

From the beginning of the 18th century, the Russian army was formed from serfs, who were initially taken for life, and then for 25 years. Driven to a neurotic state by drill and cruel punishments, they were formidable opponents, especially in close combat, and a terror to the civilian population.

From the end of the 19th century, after the liberation of peasants from serfdom and the transition to a mobilization principle of forming the army from relatively free people, Russia began to suffer defeats in wars.

Stalin stopped this trend when peasants in collective farms were again turned into serfs. And when NKVD barrier troops were introduced, when soldiers' relatives were punished for his escape from the battlefield, when SMERSH sent people to be shot for any manifestations of discontent, it again became possible to throw large masses of troops into frontal attacks against German machine guns.

The Soviet army began to win at the cost of colossal losses. Now there is ostensibly no slavery in Russia, except for prisoners, whose supply is not endless.

The demographic potential of the once populous and disenfranchised village is almost exhausted. Soldiers recruited for large sums of money from depressed regions or mobilized soldiers do not want to die submissively and en masse. If one also considers the perpetual corruption and theft in the Russian army, it becomes clear that the strength of the Russian army, in the perception of external observers, was clearly overestimated.

Therefore, to increase the chances of success in a future conflict, Moscow is also considering the option of using nuclear weapons to paralyze the will of Europeans and force them to peace on the Kremlin's terms, as well as to prevent the armies of other European countries from coming to the aid of the Baltics.

To avoid a retaliatory nuclear strike on its territory, by all indications, Moscow is preparing to use nuclear weapons against Western countries from the territory of Belarus, which is intended to become the object of a retaliatory strike.

In Belarus, in the Asipovichy district, Iskander missile systems, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, are already deployed.

Currently, a modified intercontinental ballistic missile "Yars," which after its range was halved received the name "Oreshnik," is being deployed on our territory. But most importantly, a storage facility for nuclear warheads is being built in the Krychaw district, most likely for "Oreshniks," "Iskanders," and tactical nuclear aerial bombs.

The fact is that in the Russian army, and previously in the Soviet army, nuclear warheads were stored not near their carriers, as in NATO, but in special storage facilities — very expensive reinforced structures where constant temperature, pressure, and humidity are maintained. During a threatening period or during regular training, warheads are transported by vehicle convoys from the storage facility to the carriers (delivery systems).

The fact that Moscow is building such an expensive and complex facility in Belarus and has already organized its air defense indicates that a large number of nuclear warheads will be permanently deployed on our land. And not because Russia lacks land for their placement, but for specific purposes.

We need to find ways to prevent the use of our land for aggression against the Baltic countries and for launching nuclear strikes. And to prevent it, avoiding a direct armed conflict between NATO countries and Russia on our land.

All of this will have to be decided by Belarusians themselves.

I have already written about my proposals. We have no other realistic path to the liberation and preservation of our country, as well as peace in the region.

The main thing is to realize the reality of the danger in time and not be late with the necessary measures.

The time is coming when the slogan "For a neutral, nuclear-free Belarus!" becomes a program of national survival, capable of uniting the majority of Belarusians, regardless of their views and place of residence.

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