Chatham House has presented the results of a new study on the views of Belarusians regarding the war, domestic and foreign policy.
The survey in question took place in August and November of this year. It involved 713 Belarusians, with the sample limited to internet users. The results of the survey may be affected by the fear factor, as some respondents are afraid to express critical opinions about the authorities. However, according to the authors, the statistical error does not exceed 3.7%.
The survey divided respondents into four groups: pro-government (26%), neutral (37%), economically dissatisfied (24%), and pro-democracy (13%).
Foreign Policy and War
Support for Russia in the war remains relatively low, with only 27% of Belarusian city residents declaring it. At the same time, most Belarusians would like an immediate cessation of hostilities and the start of negotiations. And this figure has been growing for two years.
At the same time, Belarusians have become less likely to believe in Ukraine's victory over the past year — only 8% do (compared to 12% a year ago). Every second respondent said that Russia would win. But there is also a large percentage of those who found it difficult to answer — 42%.
In foreign policy, Belarusians most often support the alliance with Russia. 44% of respondents voted for this. And this is the highest figure in five years of surveys.
At the same time, the proportion of those who support the country's accession to the EU (15%) and those who believe that it is better for it to remain neutral (19%) has hardly changed over the past two years. 22% of respondents voted for a simultaneous alliance with Russia and the EU.
Assessment of the situation inside the country
Belarusians of different political views have a positive attitude towards the release of political prisoners (only 15% express disapproval). Whereas plans to attract migrant workers are viewed predominantly negatively.
Belarusians tend to pessimistically assess the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the emigration of the population. There is little optimism about the situation with freedom of speech and income levels.
At the same time, moods are noticeably more positive in a number of areas: Belarusians look favorably on the state of the environment, the development of education and medicine.
Military integration with Russia and attitude to NATO
The survey results demonstrated a poor awareness of Belarusians about the details of military cooperation with Russia. Thus, only about a third of respondents stated that they knew about plans to deploy the Oreshnik complex and tactical nuclear weapons (32% and 33%, respectively).
The most informed group was the pro-government group (51%). But among the neutrally minded, there were the fewest — 22%.
At the same time, pro-democracy individuals were more likely than others to express the opinion that nuclear weapons had not been deployed on the territory of Belarus.
Support for the decision to deploy nuclear weapons has grown noticeably in two years — from 33% in November 2023 to 45% in November this year, although the majority — 56% — is still against it. The authors of the study explain the growth in the support indicator by the influence of state propaganda.
As for various military blocs, only 8% of Belarusians supported joining NATO after a change of political leadership in the country. The number of Belarusians who believe that Belarus should strive for neutrality (37%) and those who believe that it should remain in the CSTO (55%) remained almost at the same level (37%) as two years ago.
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Якое апытанне ў Беларусі, Астапеня? Ідзі нарэшце на працу прыстойную ўладкуйся!