"If Putin goes to Narva, we will go to war" — Swedish Defense Minister

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson. Photo: AP Photo / Roman Koksarov

According to the Swedish minister, claims about Moscow's successes do not stand up to criticism. He emphasizes that over the past year, Russian troops occupied only 0.7% of Ukrainian territory, losing more than 300,000 killed and wounded. At the same time, as Jonson notes, the Russian economy is "bleeding": deficits are growing, reserves are decreasing, and banking system problems are deepening.

"Russia was unable to conduct any significant offensive on the front last year. It failed to capture any major city. Its goal last year was to capture the entire Donbas. But even there, it suffered a defeat," Jonson notes.

At the same time, the minister admits: the war will not end on its own. In his opinion, Russia will retreat only when the West strikes its energy revenues even harder and simultaneously strengthens military support for Ukraine. In this context, he calls the EU's decision to allocate €90 billion to Kyiv over the next two years encouraging.

Sweden, in turn, continues large-scale aid: €4 billion annually. According to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, after Germany and the United Kingdom, Sweden is one of the largest donors of weapons to Ukraine.

Why Sweden is preparing for a threat from the East

Despite Sweden not being part of the "Russian world" concept, Jonson openly calls Russia the main threat. He clarifies: it's not about fear, but about preparation.

According to him, Moscow is demonstrating an increasing readiness for risky military and political steps, building up forces in the Leningrad and Kaliningrad zones, and continuing aggression against its neighbors. That is why Stockholm seeks to use the time while Russia is involved in the war against Ukraine to strengthen deterrence.

Sweden, like Poland, advocates increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP — in accordance with the decisions of the NATO summit in The Hague last summer. The country, according to the minister, is actively developing the concept of "total defense."

"Society is regularly asked: if Sweden is attacked, should the country defend itself? And also: will you yourself fight? In both cases, the overwhelming majority of answers — over 80 percent — are positive. This, alongside Finland, is the highest indicator in Europe. Of 100,000 people subject to conscription, about 8,000 actually serve in the army. And among them, 82 percent recommend this experience to others, while 37 percent remain in the army on a permanent basis. We also have a psychological defense agency," Jonson noted.

"One for all, all for one"

Jonson separately emphasizes the unconditional nature of allied obligations. To the question: "if Putin wants to test the reliability of the North Atlantic Alliance by occupying, say, Estonian Narva, will Sweden go to war with Russia?" the minister replied:

"Of course! Because that's what belonging to the alliance means. We will defend every inch of allied territory."

This, he explains, is what determines Sweden's practical presence on NATO's eastern flank: Gripen fighter jets were in Poland last year as part of an air policing mission, a Swedish mechanized battalion is deployed in Latvia, and in 2026, Sweden will take a leading role in NATO's Forward Land Forces in Finland.

Thus, according to Jonson, NATO today is significantly stronger than five years ago: with new plans, a new command system, and greater strike capabilities.

Commenting on discussions about the possible unreliability of the transatlantic link, Jonson asserts that he fully trusts Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. Sweden, he notes, is not developing a "plan B" in case "America fails."

Aid to Ukraine

At the same time, according to him, Europeans should invest in a weapons procurement program for Ukraine, especially for weapons not produced on the continent.

"I also had a bilateral meeting with Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby. The Americans expect us to invest in a weapons procurement program for Ukraine's needs within the PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) program.

General Alexus Grynkewich, commander of US forces in Europe, told me the same thing. The discussion, however, is about purchasing from the US only those weapons not produced in Europe. Americans should focus on other needs, primarily in the Indo-Pacific region," Jonson noted and emphasized:

"On February 19, Sweden transferred its 21st package of military aid to Ukrainians, this time worth $1.2 billion. And we are ready to continue this."

Speaking about the prospects for a peace process, the Swedish Defense Minister emphasized:

"I leave the definition of victory to the Ukrainians. If they want to reclaim all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, we will support them in that. And if they want to start negotiations, which they have signaled, we will also support them in that. That is why we have increased our support for Ukraine, so that it can conduct such negotiations from a position of strength."

After the war, according to Jonson, Europe will play an important role in security guarantees, Ukraine's integration into the Euro-Atlantic space, and post-war investments.

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