Babaryka: Sanctions cannot be lifted from enterprises and people involved in the war. Release political prisoners at the cost of killing Ukrainians?

Viktar Babaryka. Photo: Nasha Niva

Reflecting on sanctions against Belarus, in the new episode of "TOK", Viktar Babaryka calls for a sober assessment of the parties' positions and real capabilities.

"One must understand exactly what package of sanctions is being discussed," he notes.

The politician reminds that most sanctions against Belarus "are a consequence of the war."

"Accordingly, when we deal with sanctions, we must deal with who initiated these discussions. How can one imagine Europe, which understands that sanctions were imposed against both Russia and Belarus – and we will lift sanctions from Belarus, but not from Russia? Or vice versa. It doesn't work that way. It's a package. They were introduced together, with different restrictions, but in principle for the same thing."

According to Babaryka, the "military package" of sanctions cannot be considered in isolation from the measures applied against Russia.

On the other hand, it is important to understand what steps Belarus can take independently to achieve a softening of pressure. When it comes to holding free elections, the politician believes that little depends on official Minsk here:

"They say, let's discuss, we will lift sanctions in exchange for Belarus's independence. That is, for [holding] free elections in Belarus. Question: who can make a decision about free elections in Belarus? Are you kidding? Belarus itself? Well, soberly... I think European politicians understand this perfectly. That is, you should talk to someone who can genuinely make decisions."

Regarding the release of political prisoners, Babaryka sees another problem here: "There are no questions with that. Because today you release one, and tomorrow you create new ones again."

The politician explains: "The very question being discussed is what can the current Belarusian authorities do separately from Russia? And then Europe comes and says: what can you do? You can do a very limited number of things. Release political prisoners? Yes. Reduce repression? Yes. Prevent new ones from emerging? Yes. That's all.

Now Europe [asks]: what should we do? Lift military sanctions? How so? So, you will continue to kill people? For potentially releasing some [political prisoners]. But at what cost! I understand this sounds cynical, but you will continue to kill Ukrainians. "Well, we'll release a couple of thousand from Belarusian prisons. And we'll drive them back to Ukraine or somewhere else."

Babaryka emphasizes: both Europe and official Minsk are severely limited in their maneuverability regarding the lifting of sanctions.

"I unequivocally believe it is correct: sanctions cannot be lifted from enterprises and people who are involved in the production or support of the war. They cannot, by definition, because human lives are at stake," the politician is convinced.

At the same time, he admits that the set of sanctions might be revised. Their "calibration, more precise tuning" might be possible, to "reduce the burden or reduce the negative consequences of sanctions for civil society, for ordinary people in Belarus."

However, as the politician notes, "this is not very acceptable to Belarusian society."

Among such measures could be European educational programs or an increase in visa issuance. But here too, the politician doubts their success:

"But what does this government say? Any student leaving Belarus must sign a paper. And furthermore, if I understand correctly, the Minister of Education bears personal responsibility for the return of that student. So I want to know, are there many such [willing] people? Europe will now open all its universities and say welcome, but no one will go from Belarus."

A similar situation, in Babaryka's view, applies to visas:

"The number of visas currently issued by European consulates is actually not small. Much larger than before. But very few people travel. Because you know: if you leave, it's not certain you'll return. And if you do return, it's unknown where you'll return to."

"That is, all these things are so complex from the perspective, on the one hand, of the need to calibrate and precisely adjust, and on the other hand, the impossibility of negotiating with a party that cannot make decisions. This is a very complex issue, truly complex," Babaryka summarizes.

It should be noted that Viktar Babaryka's expressed position differs from what Maria Kalesnikava advocates. In her speeches, she does not distinguish between the sanctions imposed on Lukashenka for complicity in the war and those that resulted from election rigging and repression within Belarus.

"Sanctions, okay, sanctions... But people are more important. A hypothetical desire not to lift restrictions or a desire for some dialogue — that cannot be compared to human life, and we are now specifically talking about the lives of people, the isolation, and the pressure under which almost 9 million Belarusians continue to live. (...)

Sanctions are introduced so that they can be lifted someday, and when sanctions hit ordinary people and businesses, there is nothing good in that," she noted in a conversation with Maryna Zolatava.

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