Oil is getting more expensive, but the Russian ruble and, consequently, the Belarusian ruble are getting cheaper. Here's why
Over the past week, the Russian ruble has notably depreciated against the euro and the dollar. Similar trends are observed with the Belarusian ruble.
Both rubles went down
Just a week ago — on Thursday, March 12 — the dollar, according to the National Bank, cost 2.92 rubles, and the euro — 3.392. By the end of trading this Thursday, the dollar already costs 3.02 rubles, and the euro — 3.46.
In exchange offices, the dollar can now be sold for 3.02 and bought for 3.03 – 3.05.
Over the week, the Russian ruble depreciated against the dollar from 79.50 to 85 rubles. Against the euro — from 91.59 to 98 rubles.
BEROC expert Anastasia Luzgina names the main reason why the Russian ruble, and along with it the Belarusian ruble, is getting cheaper against the backdrop of rising oil prices.
"In March, the Russian Ministry of Finance suspended the sale of foreign currency under the fiscal rule until the rules are updated," the economist explains.
As a result, there was less foreign currency on the Russian domestic market, which led to a change in the exchange rate.
Cheap ruble with expensive oil
"As for oil prices, they have indeed risen significantly, but Russia will not feel the effect of this growth immediately, but closer to April-May, as there are no revenues from contracts at new, higher prices yet.
When the period of payment receipts under new contracts comes, it will positively affect the Russian foreign exchange market," Luzgina notes.
The expert also notes that in the future, the monthly lifting of restrictions on Russian oil by the United States will have a positive impact on the Russian foreign exchange market, but for now, the market is operating under conditions of limited inflows.
Another important factor influencing the dollar exchange rate, Anastasia Luzgina names the decision of the US Federal Reserve to keep the key rate at the previous level.
Illustrative photo. Photo: "Nasha Niva"
"If it had decreased, it could have led to some depreciation of the dollar, but this, as experts predicted, did not happen. The dollar will remain strong in the near future. Although indirectly, this also influenced the exchange rate of the Russian ruble," the economist notes.
Domestic Russian factor
As a third factor that may influence the Russian ruble, the expert names the meeting of the Central Bank of Russia on the key rate scheduled for March 20.
"The dynamics of the Russian ruble will also depend on the decision made. If the rate decreases, this will be another reason for the exchange rate to fall. If it remains at the previous level, the exchange rate may remain more stable, but many Russian experts expect a slight, but still a decrease in the key rate," says Luzgina.
According to the expert, all these factors are short-term and will change over time.
"However, most likely, the trend of the Russian ruble's depreciation will continue in the future, but it will happen more smoothly than now.
Even taking into account increased revenues from expensive oil, the fiscal rule will work, but only in the opposite direction — the Russian Ministry of Finance will buy back excess currency at high oil prices.
Therefore, strong factors for the growth of the Russian ruble are not observed, as a slight depreciation of the exchange rate to 90-95 rubles per dollar corresponds to Russia's economic interests," the expert believes.
What about the Belarusian ruble?
As for the Belarusian ruble, it will traditionally continue to follow the trajectory of the Russian ruble.
"The Belarusian ruble is influenced precisely by external factors. Internal factors that could cause the ruble to depreciate are not observed. At least, at the beginning of the year, external trade results were not bad, and the population continues to sell foreign currency. Therefore, exchange rate changes in Belarus occur primarily due to the Russian factor."
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