He later apologized for this mistake to his landlady in Kyiv.
Analyst Artyom Shraibman, in the podcast "Dark Fate," spoke about his biggest mistake.
“My biggest mistake, I think, was the confidence, perhaps 90%, that there would be no full-scale war before the war,” he shared.
“I was even in Kyiv. And despite all the warnings, I explained it as Putin's bluff.”
However, Artyom had a backup plan and, in case of the worst-case scenario, he filled up his car and was preparing to leave if war suddenly broke out.
“That is, certain thoughts were there, but publicly I often said that I believed this war would not happen.”
Artyom said that he later apologized to his landlady in Kyiv (she herself is from Kharkiv). The woman, knowing his profession, asked if there would be a war, and Artyom replied that, in his opinion, there would not be.
Artyom also named a common mistake analysts make.
“People see trends and patterns where there are none, and attribute everything that happens to some evil or other will, to some cunning or strategic plan, and fit or string events onto their own framework. (…) When you are captivated by some theory, your brain simply exists in some kind of belief that this process is happening, you start to interpret everything through the prism of this process. For example, there are people who see the hand of Moscow in everything. (…) Others see the influence of China everywhere.”
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