Belarusians Ready for Liberal Reforms but Skeptical of Fair Elections

Most Belarusians are ready for liberal reforms as they do not trust the authorities. However, they are not ready to mobilize, says new sociological study presented by the Directorate-General for the External Policies of the European parliament.

According to the European Parliament, the «study tries to assess the worldviews, social needs and dividing lines among Belarusian society ahead of the 2012 legislative elections.»

«Brainwashed by propaganda

and fearing chaos as much as repression, a majority of people remains unwilling to mobilise in defence

of fundamental rights. Meanwhile, the pro-Western minority is losing hope in the EU’s capacity to break

the deadlock and grant Belarus a democratic, European future,» Dr. Anais Marin, the author of the study, writes.

However,

«the opposition does not appeal to the wider public» as it is «divided and lacking a coherent programme,»

says Dr. Marin.

The study provides some pieces of advice to the EU on how to deal with Belarus and how to treat the regime of Lukashenka.

«The EU should not get entrapped in its sanctions policy however:

conciliatory steps from official Minsk should be met by shifting the paradigm towards a more

constructive dialogue, albeit one limited to economic issues and with the segments of the ruling elite

supportive of liberalisation. In parallel, European officials should fully ignore Aliaksandr Lukashenka,» the study says.

Dr. Marin also notes that

«the EU should extend a tailored partnership offer to Belarus as a country» but not to demand unrealistic concessions as «full legal rehabilitation of political prisoners whom Lukashenka considers as

personal enemies, or the holding of free and fair elections.»

Instead of this, Dr. Marin calls on the EU

«not to pay

attention to the upcoming electoral farce (and refrain from sending electoral observers to Belarus next

September) and call instead for the holding of roundtables involving representatives of the public

sector and CSOs».

Belarusian don’t trust in fair elections

Adding a bit more statistics, only 36.8% of Belarusians believe that the upcoming parliamentary elections will be free and fair, while 39.6% think otherwise. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted in June by the Independent Institute of Socio-Political and Economic Studies. Prior to the previous parliamentary elections in 2008, 45.9% of respondents used to believe in their fairness, while 34.8% — not, Telegraf.by reports.

54.5% don’t believe anything will depend on their voice and 46.9% believe the seats in the Parliament have been distributed beforehand and the nation will see nothing more but a sheer imitation of a real electoral competition.

However, 63.7% of respondents think that an independent election observation contributes to greater fairness and objectivity of the elections. 52.7% want to receive information on compliance with election procedures by the observers, preferring independent observers (37.7%), rather than observers from organizations supported by the government (6.9%).

At the same time 22.7% of people are willing to become observers at elections, while another 28% — to provide observers with the information about violations during the elections.

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