"Wagner" switched to sabotage in Europe

Illustrative photo: Vlad Karkov / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images

As writes The Financial Times, after the failed mutiny against Russia's military leadership in June 2023 and the death of the group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner's status remains uncertain. However, those who previously specialized in recruiting young people from the Russian hinterland for the war in Ukraine have now received a new task — to recruit economically vulnerable Europeans to carry out violent actions in NATO countries.

According to one Western intelligence representative, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of Russia (GRU) "is utilizing the talents available to it," referring to the "Wagner" network. The GRU, together with the FSB, is actively seeking so-called "disposable" agents in Europe to sow chaos.

Over the past two years, the Kremlin has significantly expanded its campaign of destabilization and sabotage, aiming to undermine the resolve of Western countries in supporting Ukraine and to provoke social unrest. Facing a large-scale expulsion of diplomats and a reduction in the number of career spies, Moscow is increasingly forced to resort to the services of intermediaries. For the GRU, the "Wagner" network has proven to be a crude but effective tool for these purposes.

The tasks assigned to agents range from setting fire to politicians' cars and warehouses containing aid for Ukraine, to mimicking the activities of Nazi propaganda groups. Perpetrators are usually recruited for money; most often, these are marginalized individuals without specific life goals or directions.

According to a European official, "Wagner" recruiters know how to speak to such people in their own language. Russian special services usually try to create several intermediate layers between themselves and the perpetrators to maintain plausible deniability, and "Wagnerites" have long experience working this way with the GRU.

At the same time, the FSB generally resorts to criminal networks and diasporas with which it has established ties in the near abroad. However, these channels have proven less effective for mass recruitment of perpetrators.

Internet activity plays a significant role in this process. "Wagner" and its supporters have successfully adapted their work in social networks and Telegram channels for an international audience, operating surprisingly professionally and skillfully. The influence of the "troll factory" — the Internet Research Agency, created by Prigozhin, which has been engaged in disinformation in the West for years — is palpable here.

European special services have been monitoring the role of the "Wagner" network in the sabotage campaign from the outset. An example of such activity occurred in the UK at the end of 2023, where 21-year-old petty criminal Dylan Earl was recruited via social media. He, involving four other young people, organized an arson attack on a warehouse in London, for which he was later sentenced to 23 years in prison. As the judge noted, anonymous handlers found young people online who were willing to be radicalized and betray their country for easy money.

Following this incident, European security services began to identify a much broader network of similar "disposable" perpetrators across Europe. However, this strategy also has a weak point: while gaining in scale and cheapness by using amateurs, Moscow loses in competence and secrecy. At this point, the number of foiled attacks exceeds the number of those that succeeded.

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