European intelligence chiefs do not expect the war to end this year — Reuters
Moscow is using negotiations with the US to secure the lifting of sanctions and the conclusion of business deals.
Photo: Wolfgang Schwan / Anadolu via Getty Images
The heads of five European intelligence agencies, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, are skeptical about the war in Ukraine ending this year — because Russia does not intend to do so.
Four of them said that Moscow is using negotiations with the US to secure the lifting of sanctions and the conclusion of business deals.
The negotiations, the latest round of which took place this week in Geneva, represent "theatre," said one European intelligence chief.
"Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. It is pursuing its strategic objectives, and they have not changed," said one European intelligence chief. These include the removal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the transformation of Ukraine into a "neutral" buffer against the West.
The main problem, according to a second intelligence chief, is that Russia does not want or need a quick peace, and its economy "is not on the verge of collapse."
One intelligence chief stated that Russia might be territorially satisfied if it gains the remaining part of Donbas, but this would not allow it to achieve its goal of overthrowing Zelenskyy's pro-Western government.
Another intelligence chief said there is a misconception that Ukraine's concession of Donbas would quickly lead to a peace agreement. "In the event that the Russians get these concessions, I think it might be the beginning of real negotiations," the official said, predicting that Russia would then make further demands.
Additionally, two officials said that Moscow is trying to divide the negotiations into two different tracks: one focused on the war, and the other on bilateral agreements with the US, which would include the lifting of sanctions against Russia.
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