Ukrainian Armed Forces' Strikes on Oil Refineries Damaged 23% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity

"Novaya Evropa" summarized the capacities of the stopped units and concluded that capacities providing about 23% of oil refining in Russia and about 16% of gasoline production have been taken out of commission.

"This looks serious and alarming for the market. A lot is flying into the plants!" — said to "Novaya Evropa" the co-owner of a regional gas station chain, which is not part of any vertically integrated oil companies.

He reminds that the surplus of gasoline production in Russia is no more than 9% (this is what usually goes for export, which authorities banned from April to saturate the domestic market) — meaning the current bombings threaten a full-blown crisis.

"Plants are bombed regularly, refining is falling, the season has started — demand is high," another large trader supports him and adds that there are particularly significant problems with AI-95 supplies now. The Kommersant newspaper also wrote this week about a growing fuel deficit in the market, citing analysts and traders.

The co-owner of a regional gas station chain explains the reasons for the start of the crisis as follows: it is increasingly difficult for gas station chains not part of large oil companies (which account for about 40% of fuel sales in Russia) to buy fuel on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. "There is a severe shortage of all types on the exchange," the interlocutor said. The scarcity is caused by large companies primarily supplying fuel to their own gas station networks in the regions where they operate. "Affected plants and territories will not be left without fuel, at the expense of our volumes. This is traditional. Oil companies will provide for themselves, and we – as it turns out," the interlocutor said.

Given that the main part of refining capacities is located in the European part of Russia, problems may begin in Western Siberia, where there is only one large plant — Gazprom Neft's Omsk Refinery.

"Strikes on oil refineries and export infrastructure have already moved from the category of local disruptions to the category of macroeconomically significant pressure on the system," said Tatyana Mitrova, an expert at the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.

She notes statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which confirm that the bombing of ports and plants limits the capabilities of companies that have nowhere to send part of their raw material volumes.

This has already led to a significant 5% reduction in oil production in Russia in April 2026 compared to April 2025, or 460,000 barrels per day.

Oil product exports suffered even more — they fell to a historical minimum according to IEA statistics, to 2.15 million barrels per day, after averaging 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025.

Despite all these problems, it's too early to talk about a fuel deficit across the entire country, "but the risks of noticeable tension are already quite real," Mitrova believes. Now, "a more likely scenario is local imbalances, pressure on wholesale prices, and a worsening situation for independent players, rather than a nationwide deficit," she told "Novaya Evropa."

"The main risk for the domestic market now is not empty gas stations across the country, but the system operating with a sharply reduced margin of safety. For AI-95, signs of tension are already visible in the exchange segment. The state, most likely, will continue to administratively support the domestic market through export restrictions and manual redistribution of flows," she added.

This is exactly what the authorities are doing now. Firstly, from April 2 to July 31, the Russian government banned all market participants from exporting gasoline. Such bans traditionally do not apply to diesel fuel, of which Russian refineries produce twice the domestic market's needs.

Secondly, rising global oil prices allowed oil companies to receive quite substantial subsidies for oil refining from the Ministry of Finance after several months of low levels. For the 4 months of 2026, these amounted to 563 billion rubles (this is the total payment of the damper, reverse excise tax, and investment premium). The government pays these subsidies to oil companies to encourage them to maintain low prices for oil products in the domestic market.

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