200 people per day. What is known about Russia's losses in Ukraine by the end of July?

BBC, together with "Mediazona" and a team of volunteers, identified the names of 234,795 Russian servicemen who have died since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 56% of all those killed are people who had civilian professions and signed a contract with the Russian army after the war began.

For the past two years, the number of confirmed deaths that could be established has not dropped below 200 people per day. These are only cases whose deaths can be verified based on open sources. The real number of losses is likely much higher.

Key Trends

An analysis of thousands of obituaries allows tracing how the nature of combat operations has changed. In the first year and a half, the loss graph was wave-like: after peaks—for example, during the assault on Bakhmut and the capture of Avdiivka, when 100-150 people died daily—the number of killed decreased to 50-60 people per day.

Since October 2023, daily losses have stabilized at a consistently high level—around 120 people per day.

Since July 2024, this indicator has increased to 200 soldiers and officers daily and has barely decreased since then. In certain weeks of 2025, the number of killed reached 400-450 people per day. This may be due to two factors: the Russian army's desire to advance even at the cost of heavy losses, and the massive use of drones by both sides for strikes on personnel.

A decrease in the figures in the latter part of the graphs does not mean a real reduction in losses. It is explained by the delay between a serviceman's death and the publication of an obituary, as well as the time required to verify new reports.

Who Suffers the Heaviest Losses

The distribution of losses by region shows that contracts are now most often signed by residents of small towns and villages, where it is harder to find stable and well-paying jobs, and local authorities' campaigns are more active.

The heaviest losses, relative to population, fall on the regions of Western Siberia. The list is topped by Tuva, followed by Buryatia and the Altai Republic. The lowest relative losses are in Moscow and St. Petersburg, where they are 25-30 times lower.

Bashkortostan and Tatarstan lead in the total number of killed, but this is partly due to the fact that volunteers in these regions are most active in collecting information.

Volunteers, Mobilized, and Prisoners

The most numerous category of those killed remains volunteers — people who lived and worked as civilians before the war, and signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense after the start of the full-scale invasion.

This category also includes suspects and those accused of criminal offenses who went to the front before their trial was concluded.

Prisoners account for 11% of confirmed losses, with another 8% attributed to the mobilized.

Officer Casualties

Russia continues to lose trained military personnel. Since the beginning of the invasion, the deaths of 7,524 officers have been reported, with 77% of them being junior commanders.

Military academies are not able to train the required number of officers, as the training of one commander takes about four years. Therefore, the Ministry of Defense increasingly assigns officer ranks to former privates who have gained combat experience and completed short-term courses.

Among the confirmed dead are 520 lieutenant colonels, 169 colonels, and 15 generals.

What are the Real Scales of Losses?

According to military experts, the analysis may have covered only 45-55% of the actual number of those killed.

Not all deaths are publicly reported. Additionally, the bodies of many servicemen killed in recent months still remain on the battlefield, as their evacuation is associated with high risk due to the threat of drone strikes.

Based on these estimates, the real number of fallen Russian servicemen could range from 426,900 to 521,767 people.

If one also takes into account the participants of the armed formations of the so-called "DPR" and "LPR," as well as the losses of North Korean units that participated in combat operations on the territory of Russia's Kursk region, then the total losses of pro-Russian forces could range from 450,204 to 547,571 servicemen.

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