The global economy increasingly resembles the letter K. Where does Belarus stand on it?

According to the new IMF forecast, the global economy will grow by 3.1% in 2026 and by 3.4% in 2027. However, these figures conceal significant differences between countries.

As MarketWatch writes, while in April the fund predicted that 95% of global economic growth would be provided by 54 countries, their number has now decreased to 32. At the same time, the IMF has downgraded economic forecasts for almost half of the countries it analyzes.

This situation is called K-shaped growth — after the shape of the letter K, where one diagonal line goes up and the other goes down. Similarly, the economic trajectories of different countries diverge: some develop quickly, others much slower. Lagging does not necessarily mean an economic downturn – a country may continue to grow, but not as quickly as others.

Who are the winners?

“In many countries that have been relatively little affected by the consequences of the war and are actively participating in the technological surge, economic activity remains at the previous level or is strengthening,” the IMF noted.

The artificial intelligence boom has created enormous demand for powerful computers, chips, servers, and data center equipment. This brings additional revenue to technology manufacturers and supports the growth of countries where relevant enterprises are located.

Among those benefiting the most, the IMF highlights Taiwan, South Korea, and India. The first two economies hold an important place in global semiconductor and electronics production, and India also benefits from growing demand for technological services.

Павялічыць

India remains one of the world's fastest-growing major economies: this year the IMF forecasts 7% growth for it. For comparison, China's economy is projected to increase by 4.5%.

In the United States, growth rates are significantly more modest than in India, but still relatively high for a developed economy. The IMF expects the US GDP to increase by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. Moreover, the forecast for the next year was raised by 0.2 percentage points. One of the factors supporting the American economy has been massive investments in artificial intelligence and related infrastructure.

The scale of the technological boom is well illustrated by other figures. The United States and China together accounted for more than three-quarters of net imports of AI computing equipment in 2025. In addition, 57% of new data centers built worldwide since 2024 are located in these two countries.

Who is lagging?

In most major Western European countries, the economy will grow significantly slower than in the United States and leading Asian states. According to the IMF forecast, the EU's GDP will increase by 1.4% annually in 2026 and 2027.

Павялічыць

Prospects are especially modest in France, where only 0.4% growth is expected this year. Germany and the UK are forecast to grow by 1.3%, and Austria by 0.6%.

In 2027, French economic growth is expected to accelerate to 0.7%, and Austrian to 0.9%. However, in Germany, it will slow down to 1.1%, and in the UK to 1.2%.

Nevertheless, Europe is not uniform. For example, the fund forecasts growth of 3.4% in Poland in 2026, 2.7% in Lithuania, and 2.3% in Latvia. These figures are noticeably higher than the average for the European Union.

According to the IMF, countries that are highly dependent on energy imports and at the same time hardly benefit from the development of artificial intelligence find themselves in a particularly difficult position. Rising oil and gas prices increase their costs, and the technological boom does not provide sufficient additional impetus for the economy.

Such countries simultaneously face rising import costs, pressure on national currencies, and a decline in real incomes of the population. States have fewer opportunities to support the economy through the budget. According to the IMF, economic growth forecasts were downgraded, in particular, for a number of countries in Latin America and the Middle East.

Belarus and its neighbors

The IMF also predicts rather modest economic growth for Belarus. In 2026, according to the October forecast, Belarusian GDP will increase by 1.9%, and in 2027 – by only 1.2%. This is below the expected global economic growth rates.

Павялічыць

Even more modest indicators are expected in Russia: the fund forecasts its economy to grow by only 0.9% in 2026 and 2027.

Ukraine stands out separately. For 2026, the IMF forecasts its GDP to grow by 1%, but expects an acceleration to 3.5% in 2027 and to 4.2% in 2028. It is clear that these forecasts depend particularly strongly on how the military situation develops.

In Belarus itself, the fund does not expect significant acceleration in the coming years. For 2028, GDP growth of only 1.1% is predicted.

What could change the forecast?

The main source of uncertainty for the global economy remains the war in the Middle East. The IMF forecast is based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil supplies passes, will reopen by March 2027, and by October the situation in the region will largely return to pre-war conditions.

The consequences of the war are already being felt in the economies of the Persian Gulf countries. Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have faced serious disruptions in oil and gas trade. The IMF expects that in 2026, energy production in these countries will decline at double-digit rates, but the lost volumes will be restored next year.

Overall, the economy of the Middle East and Central Asia, according to the fund's forecast, will contract by 0.3% this year, but will grow by 6.3% in 2027.

Particularly sharp fluctuations are projected in Saudi Arabia. After growing by 4.6% in 2025, its economy this year, as the IMF expects, will contract by 3.3%, and will grow by 7.9% in 2027.

However, this forecast was prepared before the latest missile strikes on the kingdom's territory, including the airport in Riyadh. Therefore, the consequences of these attacks have not yet been taken into account in the fund's calculations.

Another factor is the further development of artificial intelligence. The fund expects that the global technological boom will gradually become less intense. At the same time, the forecast does not yet include the additional growth in labor productivity that broader AI adoption could bring.

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