NATO Commander Hrynkewicz Described Strategy in Case of Russian Attack

According to Hrynkewicz, a secret version of the plan was approved three months ago. He concisely formulated his message for both concerned Europeans and the potential aggressor: "We will fight back." The Wall Street Journal relates his speech.

The concept, called "Theory of Victory," envisages "defeating the enemy in three stages."

In the first stage, named Block, NATO forces must repel the initial attack. If the enemy continues the offensive, the alliance will move to the second stage — Blunt. Its task is to deprive the attacking troops of the ability to advance further.

The third stage — Break — involves the destruction not only of the attacking units but also of the entire military system supporting their actions. For this, NATO plans to cut off supply routes, disable command systems, and deprive the attacking forces of their combat effectiveness.

An Offensive is Expected Precisely from the Belarusian Direction

The plan is designed for a situation where Russia, using its geographical advantage, quickly concentrates troops against Poland and the Baltic states. Belarus borders all these countries. Russia already used Belarusian territory for the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, so this scenario is taken seriously in the region.

An "Autonomous Zone" Could Appear Near the Belarusian Border

The strategy involves a wide strip where drones and ground robots are to stop an offensive without heavy losses among military personnel. Such a strip would likely run along the borders of Poland and Lithuania with Belarus and Russia. Hrynkewicz emphasized relying on "affordable mass," meaning inexpensive drones in the Ukrainian style.

Belarus's Neighbors are Preparing for Defense

According to 2025 data, Poland spends 4.3% of its GDP on defense, Lithuania 4%, Latvia 3.6%, and Estonia 3.4%. These are the highest figures in the European Union.

NATO Does Not Seek Regime Change in Russia

Hrynkewicz separately emphasized that the Alliance does not aim to defeat Russia or change its government. The goal is to stop an attack and prevent escalation, including nuclear. For Belarusians, this means that this plan does not decide the fate of the Minsk regime.

While General Hrynkewicz spoke in Warsaw, over 20,000 NATO troops participated in the ten-day Steadfast Duel staff exercises. According to the scenario, about a million allied soldiers defend against an invasion by a similarly sized army "from the east." The aggressor country is not named for political reasons.

Alarming Background: Washington

The general's speech was largely overshadowed by Donald Trump's latest statement. He announced a deal for Russian diesel fuel imports, criticized Zelenskyy for strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, and then declared an "energy truce." However, soon after, Russia struck a power plant in Kharkiv. Most in Europe and many in the US believe that the deal provides Moscow with money and legitimizes Putin's war.

Furthermore, the Pentagon is finalizing a review of the American military presence in Europe, and troop numbers there may decrease. Due to expenses during the war with Iran, Europe lacks Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles and ATACMS missiles. Hrynkewicz did not name a timeline for when the defense would be strengthened.

Russian "Shadow War"

Meanwhile, drones are already violating NATO airspace, and acts of sabotage are occurring against infrastructure and defense enterprises. For example, a drone with explosives was recently aimed at Leipzig airport; by a miracle, the attack failed. This topic is familiar to Belarusians, as incidents with drones and balloons on the Polish and Lithuanian borders have long been part of the regional tension.

Previously, the West believed that after the war in Ukraine, the Alliance would have several years before Russia could prepare a large-scale attack. Now, NATO is in a hurry.

For Belarus, the conclusion is simple: in NATO's plan, it is considered a subservient part of Russia's military machine. If Moscow starts a war with the Alliance, Belarusian territory will become a target for strikes and a battlefield from the very first days.

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