The migrant crisis organized by Lukashenka — is it over? Here's what the numbers show
Starting from 2021, migrants actively attempted to illegally enter the European Union from Belarus. Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime facilitated this, using migrants to pressure neighboring EU countries. What about now?
Illustrative photo. Photo: AP / Czarek Sokolowski
In recent months, there has been a certain lull at the border between Belarus and the European Union. It seems that the regime has stopped using illegal migrants as an element of hybrid attacks on neighboring European countries.
Poland
Since the beginning of March, there have been four days when Polish border guards recorded attempts to illegally enter the country from Belarus — even though the weather seemed favorable. In total, about 25 individuals attempted.
Screenshot: Straz_Graniczna / X
In February, there were only five days when Polish border guards recorded migrants at the border. In total, 49 attempts to illegally cross the border from Belarus were recorded.
At the same time, in February 2025, the number was in the hundreds of people, with attempts to illegally cross the border recorded almost every day.
Lithuania
Since the beginning of the year, Lithuanian border guards have recorded only 37 attempts to illegally enter Lithuania from Belarus.
Screenshot: vsat.lrv.lt
The State Border Guard Service of the Republic of Lithuania also stated that the situation with illegal migration from Belarus has changed. In a comment to a Lithuanian publication, a representative of the Service cited the absence of active actions from the Belarusian side to organize the transport and relocation of migrants as one of the reasons for this.
Latvia
On the Latvian direction, there is also a significant decrease in attempts to illegally cross the border compared to the same period last year. We are not considering January data, as this month was abnormally cold this year, which could have affected migrants' morale. But a not-so-cold February and early March provide an opportunity to form a certain picture.
In February 2025, 75 attempts to illegally cross the Latvian border from Belarus were recorded. In total, there were 12 days when such attempts were recorded.
In February 2026, there were only three such days and 20 people.
In the first eight days of March 2025, 23 people attempted to illegally cross the Latvian border, while since the beginning of March 2026, only 9 have.
18-year-old Military Academy cadet from Lyakhovichi said nothing to anyone, took his documents, and went to fight for Russia. Now they mourn him. 48
18-year-old Military Academy cadet from Lyakhovichi said nothing to anyone, took his documents, and went to fight for Russia. Now they mourn him.
"Lukashenka is like: Nazarbayev says it's time to leave, but I don't see successors." Semchanka — about the meeting with Lukashenka in summer 2020 1616
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