What will the lifting of US sanctions on potash and banks lead to?
After another visit of US Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale to Minsk, Lukashenka released 250 political prisoners, and the US lifted some sanctions. We spoke with an expert about what this means for the Belarusian economy and why Lithuania's position is important here.
Sanctions lifted, what's next?
On March 26, 2026, the US Department of the Treasury officially announced the removal of Belaruskali and Belarusian Potash Company, Belinvestbank, and several other entities from its sanctions list. The directive that previously restricted the operations of the Ministry of Finance of Belarus and the Development Bank, including transactions with state debts and financial instruments, has also been canceled.
John Coale spoke recently about the US interest in Belarusian potash.
According to BEROC expert Nastassia Luzgina, this interest may be fueled by economic contradictions with Canada, which is an important supplier of potash fertilizers to the US. Thus, Trump could diversify supplies and at the same time get fertilizers at lower prices.
It is important to understand that previously, the US share in Belarusian potash exports was small. In 2019-2020, the United States accounted for only about 4-4.5% of Belaruskali's exports.
However, it is not excluded that due to complex relations with Canada, the US may seek to increase supply volumes from Belarus.
"By lifting sanctions on Belarusian potash, the United States can expect to receive fertilizers at attractive prices, as the European Union, which previously accounted for at least a third of exports, is not yet planning to lift sanctions.
Nevertheless, Lithuania plays an important role in the issue of lifting sanctions, as it does not allow Belarusian potash through its port due to existing sanctions."
How important is the Lithuanian factor?
If it is impossible to use the port of Klaipėda, it is difficult for the United States to deliver fertilizers, especially considering the conflict in Iran, which caused problems with the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, the port issue remains very important.
The expert also points out that the authorities spoke about their readiness for a deal to sell the Belarusian mine to the Americans.
"At least, Belarus stated the possibility of such a deal. If this happens, then it means that Americans must also have the opportunity to transport potash through some ports," Luzgina notes.
In addition, the resumption of supplies through Klaipėda would mean simpler, faster, and more convenient logistics for supplies not only to the US but also to other countries.
Is the US pressuring Lithuania?
Coale openly calls on Vilnius for dialogue with the Belarusian regime, which he stated in an interview with LRT.
The President and Prime Minister of Lithuania have already responded to the calls from the American side.
Gitanas Nausėda stated that dialogue between the countries is possible only when "the other side demonstrates good will for the development of good neighborly relations." However, he currently does not see such "good will" from Belarus.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene stated that Lithuania would consider John Coale's proposal to hold a meeting with Belarus at the level of vice-ministers, but there are several conditions for this.
Therefore, whether potash can be supplied through Lithuania is a complex question.
Lukashenka is already in the black
Nastassia Luzgina believes that even if it is not possible to supply potash through Klaipėda, the full lifting of American sanctions on Belarusian potash will still positively affect both the company's operations and Belarusian exports in general.
"While Belarusian potash was under American sanctions, this also affected relations with other countries, which might have refused to purchase Belarusian products or did so at a significant discount, fearing US sanctions.
Therefore, their lifting may affect the increase in selling prices, as there will be no need to offer a discount, because all operations will be legal and buyers will not fear falling under secondary sanctions.
Even if it is not possible to supply through Klaipėda, the absence of American sanctions will at least positively affect trade with other countries. This includes the possibility for Belaruskali to conduct payments in US dollars," explains the expert.
Why were sanctions lifted from Belinvestbank?
Commenting on the lifting of sanctions from Belinvestbank, Luzgina points out that since it is under EU sanctions and disconnected from SWIFT, conducting payments through it with the United States remains a difficult task.
"With great desire, one can do without SWIFT, but for this, Belinvestbank needs to agree with another bank in the US that they will cooperate directly without SWIFT. But this is a rather complex and lengthy process that requires negotiations, investment in equipment, and several months of time," explains the expert.
Luzgina does not link the lifting of sanctions from Belinvestbank to the US's desire to use it for future payments for potash.
"Likely, Belarus asked to remove this bank from sanctions for the possibility of using dollars when working with other countries, for example, with China."
Regarding possible settlements between the US and Belarus, according to the economist, countries can use other Belarusian banks that are not disconnected from SWIFT for this purpose.
The Iranian Factor
Speaking about the prospects of Belarusian fertilizers, not only potash but also nitrogen, an important factor of the conflict in Iran should be noted.
Since problems with crossing the strait affect not only the supply of oil and petroleum products but also fertilizers.
"Trump's actions show that, in order to regulate world prices and maintain balance in the global economy, the US is ready, even if temporarily, to lift sanctions on Russian and even Iranian oil. Now they are trying to regulate the potash market in the same way, so that prices do not rise sharply and fertilizers are available in sufficient quantities.
Fertilizers are needed for agriculture. If there are not enough of them, other chains of problems may arise; we may face rising prices and a shortage of certain products," the expert notes.
What was the result of the sanctions?
Due to sanctions from the EU and the US, the share of Belarusian potash in the world market decreased from 20% in the pre-sanction period to about 6% as of 2024. These figures clearly reflect how painful the restrictions on Belarusian potash were.
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