A Test for Keir Starmer. Britain Awaits Local Elections — And Unprecedented Results

Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage. Photo: Jordan Pettitt / PA Images via Getty Images

Today, the UK will hold its largest elections since Labour came to power two years ago. Elections will be held in 136 local councils in England, while Wales and Scotland will vote for their national parliaments, writes the BBC.

Perhaps the main intrigue of these elections is how strong a blow the Labour Party will receive. But besides this blow, the two-party system itself, on which British politics has rested for over a century, may be challenged.

The Conservative Party is fighting just to maintain its positions, while the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and the right-wing Reform UK party are expecting only local, but previously unprecedented, victories.

Councils of city districts and small administrative territories in the UK are elected. This level of government is in the closest contact with the population.

Councils are responsible for landscaping, repairing local roads, waste collection, assisting the elderly, supporting local initiatives, and helping schools and libraries. Local councils consider issues of construction or redevelopment of homes in their territories.

Elections will be held in 136 out of 317 councils.

According to data from the independent think tank Institute for Government, currently, in 66 out of 134 local authorities (two more have just been created, and elections will be held there for the first time), Labour holds the majority, Conservatives in 16, Liberal Democrats in 13, and independent deputies in one.

In another 38, no single party has a clear majority, and they are governed by coalitions.

Analyzing regularly conducted polls, the British press writes that Labour faces one of its most painful defeats in decades.

Before May 7, their lowest electoral drop in local elections was in 2009 — Labour held only about 20% of local council seats compared to approximately 38% in 2004. This time, polls predict they will get at most 19%.

The Guardian newspaper quotes Stephen Fisher, Professor of Political Sociology at Oxford University. According to his calculations, Labour will lose 74% of the seats they currently hold and are contesting.

Analysts link such a drop in popularity in less than two years in power to the indecisiveness of leader Keir Starmer and reproach him for failing to utilize his parliamentary majority to implement necessary reforms. The economy is not growing at the promised rates, and voters are dissatisfied with the quality of life.

The scandal involving the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to the USA (who, it turned out, failed a suitability check for the position before appointment and is accused of transferring classified information to American financier Jeffrey Epstein, convicted of pedophilia) became a strong personal reputational blow for Starmer and raised questions about his future as Prime Minister.

A serious defeat for Labour in the local elections risks worsening his position even further.

London Goes Green and Right-Wing

Labour could face a severe blow in London, where on May 7, councils for all 32 city boroughs will be elected. Currently, the party holds a majority in 21 boroughs. The sociological company YouGov predicts that after May 7, they may be left with only 15.

The Independent writes that this would be the worst result for the Labour Party since 1982 — the time of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's power — when Labour controlled only 12 boroughs.

According to YouGov's preliminary forecasts, the Green Party claims a majority of votes in four capital borough councils, and Reform UK in three. This would be the most significant result in the history of these parties.

However, sociologists caution that due to the peculiarities of the electoral system, a majority of votes does not necessarily translate into a majority of seats in the council.

For Any Party, Except...

According to an assessment by Professor of Political Sociology at Oxford, Stephen Fisher, the right-wing populist Reform UK party will gain 2260 new seats in councils, tripling its local representation in England.

The Green Party — with a focus on climate and ecology and a left-wing economic program — has existed since the early 1970s. Previously, they managed to elect individual deputies at various levels; now YouGov predicts they will win a majority of votes in four London boroughs.

The Liberal Democrats, who united in the late 1980s, are already represented at the local level. Now, in some London boroughs, they could achieve an unprecedented 36-49% of the votes.

These local elections strike a blow not only to the ruling party but also to the political duumvirate that has formed over decades, comprising Labour and the Conservatives, who until recently primarily competed with each other.

Voters are tired of both parties; in recent years, the ideological difference between them has become less noticeable, while scandals involving them have increased. Reform will take votes from the Conservatives, and the Green Party from Labour.

British media anticipate "unprecedented" results for the country.

The Future of Nationalists in Scotland and Wales

Elections will also take place in the parliaments of Scotland and Wales — both regions have significant autonomy, including their own legislative assemblies and governments.

The greatest intrigue remains in Wales. According to polls, Labour — the largest party in the region, which has won elections to the local parliament since its establishment in 1999 — may this time only take third place.

The fight for first place will unfold between Reform and Welsh nationalists from Plaid Cymru (The Party of Wales). However, even if Reform garners the most votes, the right-wing party has no obvious coalition partners.

This means that the First Minister (de facto leader) of Wales will most likely be the head of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth. In interviews with journalists, he stated that he would not seek regional independence, unlike the Scottish National Party (SNP).

In any case, as The Economist notes, this will be a historic victory for Welsh nationalists.

In Scotland, however, the SNP, which has been in power since 2007, is likely to retain power. But Reform has a chance to increase its representation from one to 20 seats, making it the second-largest party in parliament.

SNP leader and Scotland's First Minister John Swinney has already ruled out cooperation with Nigel Farage's party. But the popularity of the right-wing party in the region, which advocates for the indivisibility of the United Kingdom, sends a signal to the local government that independence does not concern Scots as much as before.

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