Tsikhanouskaya: Lukashenka won't change, we need to stop believing in these illusions

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Photo: Marek Antoni Iwanczuk NurPhoto via Getty Images

The leader of the democratic forces neither confirmed nor denied information about John Koole's possible arrival in Minsk for the Protestant festival.

"But I want to say that none of John Koole's visits passed without people being released. Therefore, we, of course, expect a new group," Tsikhanouskaya said.

— What is important for us — we always emphasize this in communication with our partners — is that people should have a choice: to stay or to leave. If people are deported — leave their documents, because this is an additional, of course, burden on the shoulders of both Lithuania and Poland. Our partners, of course, convey these positions. But this is the regime, their task is to mess things up.

But, of course, we are very much looking forward to a new group, and everything is prepared. We also ask to raise the issue of ending repressions. Because partners also understand and see that new people are being imprisoned. Therefore, the Americans work gradually: the priority is to release people, and then discuss the development of events."

In response to concerns that the US might run out of leverage for exchanges, Tsikhanouskaya noted that the toolkit is "much broader than sanctions."

"The Americans have other, so to speak, carrots they can use. This could be a return to the previous state that existed before. This is how the American sanctions system is built," Tsikhanouskaya believes. "The only thing that is very important is to avoid political recognition of the regime."

The leader of the democratic forces noted that the greatest leverage on Lukashenka's actions lies with Europe.

"I hope everyone realizes that without strong European Union sanctions, the regime would have no intention of releasing people," Tsikhanouskaya says. "Because American sanctions without European, so to speak, sanctions — they are not so effective."

Of course, in his dreams Lukashenka sees some kind of "big deal." But still, we believe that the American side will not exert any pressure on European countries to change their policy. Because European sanctions are a very effective and strong instrument for countering the regime.

— I understand, of course, people who think that if Europe lifts sanctions, Lukashenka will immediately release people and accept everyone back. This is an illusion. And we need to stop making mistakes," the leader of the democratic forces continues. —

Again, I want to emphasize once more — I understand that people feel that every opportunity should be used to get people released. But it simply won't work. Because Lukashenka's goal is to humiliate Europe, to force it to capitulate.

For example, when they talk about Lithuania, they want Lithuanian politicians to come to Minsk to bow. But that's not how dialogue is conducted. If you have serious intentions for de-escalation, yes, then you take certain steps for that. It shouldn't look like coercion to negotiations, as it was with the trucks and the balloons… And all our partners understand this.

Sanctions, the isolation regime, the non-recognition regime — these are all tools for pressuring the Lukashenka regime. But people think that now is the time to roll things back.

Belarusians themselves seem to start losing faith in themselves. But we haven't pressured enough yet, there's still momentum. And I believe so much in our strength, in the fact that Belarusians have changed, that no one has convinced me otherwise yet — no propaganda and no attacks on Belarusians. I think we have simply matured enough to see this through to the end, not to give up halfway."

Tsikhanouskaya also notes that, when calling on Europeans to lift sanctions and enter into negotiations with Alexander Lukashenka, many forget about the war factor.

"But we also see the concerns expressed by President Zelensky and his entourage: it looks like Belarus is preparing for some kind of escalation, for some provocations. And all of this, of course, European partners take seriously," she says. —

We understand that Lukashenka will in any case serve Russia's interests, not Belarusian national interests. Therefore, I understand Europe and how it reacts to this. We, Belarusians, need to stop believing in these illusions ourselves. It's as if history teaches us nothing again.

We should learn that such situations have already happened. And led to nothing. I just returned from Sweden, where I spoke with representatives of the country's leadership. He shared that even before 2020, in 2018-2019, the country allocated a large sum of money to support organizations and initiatives in Belarus, hoping for liberalization. They wanted to help with all their might. And then 2020 came, and they saw: nothing worked out. No matter how much you invest, you can't change a person."

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