Today's small German-speaking community could become the country's majority in 90 years.
Economist and Professor of Statistics Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde from the University of Pennsylvania caused a stir on X with his calculations: the small German-speaking community in Bolivia is growing so rapidly that in about 90 years it could become the majority of the country's population, Bild writes.
On average, a Bolivian woman gives birth to 1.56 children, the professor notes. However, "a small minority, the Mennonites, who speak Plautdietsch (a variety of Low German), have a significantly higher birth rate" — about seven children per woman, Fernandez-Villaverde writes on X.
The number of Mennonites is growing, while the total population will decline in the foreseeable future.
In 1986, only about 17.5 thousand German-speaking Mennonites lived in the country. Today there are already approximately 150 thousand of them.
If this trend continues, the number of Mennonites will grow from the current 150,000 to approximately 5 million in 2116.
"Then they will constitute the majority of Bolivia's population," says the professor.
The sharp difference in birth rates is largely due to the Mennonites' lifestyle. The community adheres to a particular form of Protestantism that originated in Northern Germany starting in the 16th century. Mennonites were persecuted by the nobility of the time and therefore emigrated. Through Russia and Canada, Mennonites moved further to South America, and since the mid-20th century, they have also lived in Bolivia.
Fernandez-Villaverde, however, considers that birth rates may change, and the growth of the Mennonite community may slow down. Additionally, "many Mennonites may leave their religious community," the professor writes. In such a case, part of the community would dissolve among the country's predominantly Spanish-speaking population.
Thus, it is by no means predetermined that German will become the dominant language in this Andean state.
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Comments
Спpашивают у А.Г.Лукашенко коppеспонденты:
- Александр Григорьевич, а сколько вы языков знаете?
- Пять, - отвечает первый президент Белоруссии.
- Как пять!?
- Hу, пеpвый - это pусский письменный, втоpой - это pусский
устный, тpетий - белоpусский письменный, четвеpтый -
белоpусский устный, пятый - английский.
- А что же вы по-английски знаете?
- Хэнде Хох...
- Так это же по-немецки.
- Тогда шесть.