What weapons and intelligence data can only the US provide to Ukraine?

Tensions between Washington and Kyiv have once again raised the question of Ukraine's dependence on the United States. Donald Trump demanded an end to strikes on Russian oil refineries and called on Volodymyr Zelenskyy to resign.

At the same time, Ukrainian military personnel reported Starlink speed limitations, which complicated drone operations. Zelenskyy also stated that Ukraine had not received the usual warnings from partners about the launch of Russian ballistic missiles.

As military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady notes in a conversation with The Wall Street Journal, despite the development of its own weapons production and increased European aid, Ukraine still depends on the US in several critically important areas.

Starlink

One such area is satellite communication. Ukrainian military personnel use Starlink and its military version Starshield, including for drone operations. The recent speed limitation of Starlink has already complicated Ukrainian operations.

Павялічыць

These systems currently have no full-fledged analogues in terms of coverage, signal quality, and data transmission capabilities. European countries and Canada are developing alternatives, but comparable systems may not appear before 2028.

Missile Attack Warnings

Another critical dependency is the American early warning system for ballistic missile launches.

The US has a global network of satellites and radar stations that allows detecting missile launches and tracking their trajectories. Satellites detect thermal radiation during launch, after which the information is refined by radars. This data helps Ukrainian air defense prepare to intercept missiles, and authorities to warn the population in time.

European countries also provide Ukraine with intelligence from satellites and aircraft, but their capabilities are inferior to American ones in terms of accuracy and coverage. According to Gady, Europe will not be able to create a comparable warning system for several more years.

Patriot Missiles

To intercept Russian ballistic missiles, Ukraine largely depends on American Patriot PAC-3 MSE missiles. However, their supplies have decreased because the US used part of its reserves to protect its troops and allies from Iranian strikes in the Middle East.

An alternative could be a new version of the French-Italian SAMP/T system, which, according to manufacturers, is capable of shooting down ballistic missiles. It is already being sent to Ukraine.

Павялічыць

In addition, two Ukrainian companies, together with European partners, are developing their own interceptor missiles. It is expected that the first ones could enter service in mid-2027.

However, while Ukrainian developments are not yet ready, and the capabilities of the new SAMP/T version still need to be confirmed in practice, American missiles remain a key means of defense against ballistic attacks.

Intelligence for Strikes on Russia

Ukraine independently gathers information about Russian military targets using drones, agents, and other sources. However, American intelligence helps clarify the coordinates and characteristics of targets.

Particularly important are American capabilities to detect Russian air defense systems through their electromagnetic signals. This allows finding weak points in air defense and choosing routes for Ukrainian missiles and drones to avoid interception.

Without such data, delivering precise strikes on targets within Russian territory would be more difficult.

F-16 Fighters and American Supplies

Ukraine has received F-16 fighters from European allies, but their operation still requires American spare parts, armaments, maintenance, and software updates.

Павялічыць

A significant portion of these supplies is paid for by allies through the PURL program, which allows the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine. Since its launch, partner countries have pledged over four billion dollars.

Stopping the program would deprive Kyiv of an important supply channel. Meanwhile, according to Ukrainian air defense officers, stocks of some F-16 ammunition have already been depleted, although the aircraft are essential for intercepting Russian jet drones.

Dependence on American permits also applies to other equipment. For example, supplying spare parts for M777 howitzers requires Washington's consent, even if the parts are manufactured in the UK.

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