Canadian province of Alberta to hold a preliminary referendum on independence

Speaking on Thursday at a rally for a united Canada in Calgary, Carney, himself born in Alberta, called the timing for such a referendum extremely unfortunate. He urged his fellow Albertans to come to the polls and clearly speak out against secession.

Referendum on a Referendum

The question of independence is one of ten that Albertans will be able to answer during the vote. The others mainly concern the powers of local authorities. The results of the referendum will not be legally binding.

In May of this year, Danielle Smith included the question on the ballot following a petition by secession supporters, which gathered about 300,000 signatures.

However, residents are not being asked to vote directly for independence, but rather to express whether a legally binding referendum on Alberta's withdrawal from Canada, in accordance with the country's constitution, should be held.

Polls in recent weeks show that only about a quarter of residents are prepared to support even such a preliminary proposal, while approximately 70% are against it. Despite this, Carney urged supporters of unity not to relax and to be sure to vote. According to him, the outcome will depend on voter turnout.

On the eve of the vote, rallies and meetings are taking place in Alberta involving leading politicians from the province and across the country. On Friday, Danielle Smith will speak in Calgary at an event against secession alongside the leader of the opposition Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre. On Saturday, proponents of independence plan to hold a rally in Edmonton.

Smith herself belongs to the Conservatives, and among her constituents are supporters of independence. However, she opposes leaving Canada and argues that the referendum gives residents an opportunity to express their position directly.

Oil as an Argument for Independence

Alberta is Canada's main oil and gas province. It accounts for about 80% of the country's oil production. Crude oil remains Canada's main export commodity: last year, its sales abroad brought in 142 billion Canadian dollars, or about 100 billion US dollars.

The province is located in the west of the country and is landlocked. A significant portion of the oil is supplied to refineries in the United States.

Supporters of independence believe that Alberta transfers too much money to the federal government and receives insufficient returns. They also criticize the Liberal Party, which has governed Canada for the past ten years, for excessive attention to combating climate change and, in their opinion, hindering the development of the oil and gas industry.

Mark Carney, unlike his predecessor Justin Trudeau, promises to support oil and gas projects in Alberta. He recently announced that the government would accelerate the approval process for the construction of a new oil pipeline that would connect the province to the Pacific coast.

This course is significantly influenced by the hostile statements and actions of US President Donald Trump and his administration. Canadian authorities are seeking opportunities for oil exports that would allow them to be less dependent on the American market.

Donald Trump's Influence

In Canada, the potential role of the Trump administration in supporting the separatist movement in Alberta is widely discussed. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the province a "natural partner" of the United States.

Leaders of the separatist organization "Alberta Prosperity Project" have several times attended meetings at the US State Department. In October, the Canadian newspaper Globe and Mail published an article about the contacts between the head of the organization, Mitch Sylvester, and his team with representatives of the US Republican Party.

Павялічыць

In an interview with AFP, Sylvester stated that until separatists lead the government of independent Alberta, US interests are not decisive for him. However, in the event of independence, he promised to ensure free trade with the southern neighbor.

According to Sylvester, Alberta does not harbor hostile sentiments towards America and sees no reason to stop trade with the world's largest economy.

What Will Independence Cost

About 4.5 million people live in Alberta out of Canada's almost 42 million inhabitants. The regional gross product per capita exceeds 50 thousand US dollars per year — approximately the same as the national average.

Supporters of independence argue that the province will prosper if it can retain all revenues from oil sales. Opponents of secession, on the other hand, warn of significant additional costs that could outweigh the economic benefits.

According to a report commissioned by Danielle Smith's government and published in October, independence could cost Alberta between 50 and 170 billion Canadian dollars annually over the first five years. This is equivalent to approximately 35-120 billion US dollars. The report's authors also predict that uncertainty could lead to an outflow of investment and a reduction in a portion of foreign trade.

Independent Alberta would have to create its own state institutions — from a tax service to ministries of foreign affairs and defense. In addition, it would need to develop a constitution, create a judicial system, and negotiate with Canada on the division of federal assets, including national parks and military bases.

The province would also have to assume its appropriate share of Canada's national debt. According to the report's authors, as a result, the disposable income of Albertans would decrease by almost 6%.

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