Excessive construction: can Belarusians' love for investing money in apartments lead to a real estate market crisis?
The population of Belarus is decreasing, but the construction boom in the country continues. We looked at how this anomaly works and how Belarusians' craving for cementing money is already beginning to affect the real estate market.
Belarusians love to build apartments
Despite a stable population decline, construction volumes in Belarus remain at a high level, and the price per square meter is breaking records.
Previously, "Nasha Niva" already compared the pace of construction in Belarus with three neighboring EU countries: Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.
As a result, it turned out that in terms of the number of new apartments built over the last 20 years per 10,000 inhabitants, Belarus surpasses all its neighbors.
It should be understood that in Lithuania and especially in Latvia, the population decline from the peak figures of the early 1990s was much greater than in Belarus. But with Poland, the situation is different.
Over the last 30 years, according to official data alone, the population in Belarus has decreased by more than 11% — from about 10.2 million people in 1995 to 9.05 million in 2026.
If we add to this the fact that Belarusian statistics count all residents with a registration as inhabitants of the country, not those who actually live there, the reduction will be even more significant. But since in such a case it is impossible to name an exact figure, we will rely on the official 11.3%.
In Poland, over the same period, the population decreased by less than 3% — from 38.4 million in 1995 to 37.3 million in 2026.
Why logic doesn't work
It seems that in a situation where the population is permanently decreasing, either construction volumes should noticeably decrease, or prices should go down or at least remain at the same level.
In Belarus, however, the opposite situation is observed — real estate continues to be built consistently in large quantities, and prices have shown record growth in recent years. In Minsk, the price per square meter has already exceeded $2500 according to offers. But prices are rising not only in the capital.
The number of housing units built over the last ten years has been quite stable. Annually, about 48,000 new apartments appear in Belarus.
The least was built in 2017 — 43,100. And in 2021 and 2025, more than 50,000 apartments were built — 52,400 and 50,200 respectively.
The figures show that even against the backdrop of a massive wave of emigration after 2020-2022, construction not only did not sag but even slightly grew compared to the second half of the 2010s.
Why is this happening?
There are quite a few reasons why a lot of new housing continues to be built in Belarus, but some of them are exclusively Belarusian in nature.
Lev Lvovsky, academic director of BEROC, economist, and demographer, notes that demography in Belarus does not directly correlate with the housing market.
"If you look at it fundamentally, our population is indeed steadily decreasing and this will continue to happen in the future. From this point of view, one might assume that we no longer need to build new housing.
But on the other hand, Belarus is a country that has not long ago moved away from poverty; it is a country of medium catch-up development, so the demand for housing is still not strongly satisfied here. The hypothetical average Belarusian lives worse in terms of housing than they would like," Lvovsky explains.
And here it is important what type of housing will maintain demand in the future, and what will become less sought after.
According to the expert, demand for moving into larger apartments with several rooms will primarily continue to exist in the coming years.
"Salary levels are rising, so people will continue to improve their living conditions. Another factor is continued urbanization, as people continue to move from rural areas to small towns, and from small towns to large ones.
Therefore, depending on the city, a different picture may emerge, where new housing is indeed no longer needed in some places, while in others, even with the country's population decreasing, demand may continue to grow," says Lvovsky.
Construction volumes vary greatly across the country
At the same time, it is already evident that construction volumes in different cities of the country, with almost the same population, differ significantly. For example, since 2012, Brest and Grodno have built on average 1.6-1.7 times more housing than Vitebsk and Mogilev.
Grodno and Brest, unlike the regional centers in the east, are growing in population. In addition, higher salaries and tourism contribute to higher construction rates.
Both western regional centers are popular with tourists, so more and more housing in the center is going for daily rent, and people from those apartments are moving into new ones.
Significant differences can also be found in district centers with a population of over 100,000 people. For example, in Mozyr, twice as much housing was built during the same period as in Orsha.
Naturally, even under conditions of population decline, people from all over the country will continue to move to Minsk.
However, at the same time, a lot of so-called investment housing is being built in the capital.
Lvovsky believes that it is precisely in this segment that the imbalance may appear, where demand exists for one type of apartments, but the number of offers grows in another segment.
Demand will diverge from supply
"For the last few years, there has been a phenomenon of an overheated economy in Belarus. In particular, the average salary is growing much faster than GDP. People want to preserve these additional funds somehow, including due to a traditional fear of inflation. And for a number of reasons, including a low level of financial literacy and sanctions, one of the most popular savings methods in Belarus is buying real estate.
And when we talk about investment housing, the most common category here is one-room apartments in new buildings. Perhaps not in houses of the highest quality, because when people save something, it's more likely sums for buying an inexpensive one-room apartment than for a two- or three-room one," explains the economist.
Because of this, according to Lvovsky, long-term demand trends may diverge from what people are building now.
"We won't say that there will be a bubble in the market and apartments will be completely unnecessary. Rather, a scenario will emerge where people need multi-room apartments, which they will acquire to improve their quality of life, while among the offers there will be many of those studios that will be at the peak of the bubble," Lvovsky explains.
Anomaly in "Minsk World"
And already now, using the example of Minsk, one can observe the effect of excessive construction in a certain segment. In addition to the fact that out of 6500 apartments for sale within the Minsk Ring Road, more than half (3700) are in "Minsk World", about 3000 of these 3700 apartments are one-room units.
For comparison: outside "Minsk World", only about 550 one-room apartments are for sale in the capital.
The situation with "Minsk World" is quite indicative, as the first signs are already appearing that far more apartments have been built there than the market can absorb.
This is the only district of the city where the average price per square meter fell during September.
In addition, in "Minsk World" there are many people willing to rent out apartments with bare walls. Currently, there are 11 such advertisements, although previously they were isolated cases. Furthermore, it is not precisely known how many apartments in "Minsk World" continue to stand with bare walls for years and do not appear for sale or rent.
Can prices collapse?
Since more than 80% of apartments listed for sale in "Minsk World" are one-room apartments, the price drop in this area can only affect one-room apartments in the rest of the capital. Two-, three-, and four-room apartments will not be affected.
However, if current trends persist, the number of empty apartments will continue to grow, as people will continue to "concrete" their money, as many consider this the best way to preserve savings.
And at least for now, in Belarus, with low property taxes and relatively low utility payments (with the exception of business apartments), many housing units can continue to stand with bare walls for years, thereby accumulating a overhang of investment apartments for the future.
Now reading
"People commented that salmonella entered the chat." A Belarusian went to work in Silicon Valley - and became a culinary blogger with 28 billion views 55
"People commented that salmonella entered the chat." A Belarusian went to work in Silicon Valley - and became a culinary blogger with 28 billion views 5
Belarusian warehouseman with a swastika on his shoulder was treated for alcoholism in Siberia and went to fight for Russia, but was left without payments or work 2424
Comments
Вечно вам все не так))