Former Google CEO: Russia is catching up with Ukraine in military technologies and has significantly more resources. The main challenge will be "Rassvet"

Schmidt spoke in Kyiv with The Economist's editor-in-chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes. He talked about the technological race between Russia and Ukraine, the future of war with the use of artificial intelligence, the problems of Western armies, and the possible role of Ukrainian technologies in rearming Europe.

Russia is already improving weapons at Ukraine's pace

Previously, according to Schmidt, it was believed that Ukraine quickly created new solutions, while Russia remained a large but slow system. Now the situation has changed.

"Russia is improving at roughly the same pace as Ukraine, but it has significantly more resources," he stated.

Schmidt immediately named several threats that Ukraine has faced:

• ballistic missiles, against which there are not enough missiles for Patriot systems;
• jet "Shaheds", which fly faster and higher than earlier models;
• possible new mobilization in Russia;
• the Russian satellite system "Rassvet", similar to Starlink;
• improved glide bombs with individual guidance.

According to Schmidt, Ukraine could cope with each of these threats individually. But simultaneously confronting all of them without significant Western aid will be almost impossible.

Schmidt believes that courage and technological ingenuity alone are not enough for Ukraine. The main problem is the inability to quickly establish mass production of the necessary weapons.

"Ukraine needs money. Literally money. Secondly, it needs help in building capabilities. Ukrainians have the courage to win or continue the fight, but they cannot achieve the necessary scale on their own," he said.

According to Schmidt, the West does not need to send its troops to Ukraine. It is enough to give it funding, technology, and the ability to increase arms production.

More than half of "Shaheds" may already be jet-powered

Schmidt admitted that he did not expect such a rapid transition by Russia to jet-powered drones. Initially, it was believed that about 10% of "Shaheds" would receive new engines, but now, according to him, more than half of such drones are equipped with them.

In addition, Russia has created its own communication network between drones using Chinese components. Some drones can circle between Belarus and Kyiv, acting as repeaters and transmitting high-quality target video to the Russians.

"There are reports of plans to use up to 80,000 such jet-powered 'Shaheds' against Kyiv and other cities by the end of December. This is a serious problem. The government here is paying enormous attention to it. I know of several developments that will likely work," he says.

According to Schmidt, at least five Ukrainian companies have already developed countermeasures against jet-powered "Shaheds," which are currently being tested.

Russian Starlink analogue may appear in a year

Schmidt believes that it will take about another year to launch a full-fledged Russian satellite system "Rassvet". Once it becomes operational, it will be very difficult to prevent its use.

Such a network would allow Russia to receive communications and target weapons virtually anywhere in Ukraine.

At the same time, Ukraine cannot use Starlink to target weapons at targets on Russian territory. According to Schmidt, there is no technical obstacle to this — it is a matter of SpaceX's policy and the decision of the American authorities.

Schmidt himself advocates for giving Ukraine such an opportunity.

Machine vision guidance is not yet artificial intelligence

Schmidt pointed out that technologies often referred to as military artificial intelligence are, in most cases, machine vision systems.

They help weapons recognize a target and hit it accurately during the final stage of flight. But such a system does not learn independently and therefore is not full-fledged artificial intelligence.

True AI, according to Schmidt, will in the future be able to analyze open, secret, and intelligence data, suggest force deployment options to generals, find reasons for failures, and predict problems.

For now, such technologies are only beginning to be used in war.

Schmidt considers the full transfer of military decisions to artificial intelligence to be dangerous. He gave an example of a system that a dictator could simply order to attack another country and inform him when the war was over.

"Imagine I am an evil dictator with a perfect AI system. I say: 'Attack this country. Let me know when you're done.' That's my entire order. The system could do whatever it deemed appropriate. It could, among other things, commit mass war crimes. It could destroy civilians and infrastructure or attack a country not involved in the conflict to get back at the first one. It could come up with all sorts of absurd justifications," he says.

"A human must be involved in every military decision," Schmidt emphasized.

Western armies understand changes, but do not want to change

Schmidt worked as an advisor to the American armed forces for eight years. According to him, many in the Pentagon understand how war has changed, but the military system is extremely slow to adopt new solutions.

It is influenced by Congress, lobbyists, and companies that depend on old and expensive defense programs. Commanders also do not want to risk the lives of soldiers for unproven technologies.

A similar problem exists in Europe. European armies continue to invest in traditional systems, even though they lack interceptor missiles, and modern warfare requires cheaper drones, automatic guidance, and new air defense systems.

"The Europeans I talk to have the same problem as the Americans. They are very intelligent and understand everything, but the system is not designed to change.

In most European countries, the armed forces function as employment programs. These jobs are important, I am not dismissing them. But the military is not creating what is needed.

Keep your budget or even increase it. Just create more effective systems, because you will need them. Europe has a huge problem with missile defense. For various reasons, there are not enough Patriot missiles that it relies on. If you look at Western missile stockpiles, we don't have enough," he says.

The war in Ukraine gives the West experience that China lacks

According to Schmidt, China possesses large manufacturing capabilities but has not participated in a major war for about 50 years. Therefore, the Chinese army may lack the tactical experience that Ukraine gains daily.

He believes that a possible conflict around Taiwan would largely become a war of drones and unmanned ships, rather than traditional fleets with large ships and aircraft carriers.

At the same time, Schmidt does not expect the US or China to agree to halt the development of artificial intelligence. Such an agreement would be almost impossible to verify.

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