A big problem awaits the labor market — and it's not artificial intelligence
All developed countries will face a new challenge.
Indeed CEO Hisayuki Idekoba stated that the main threat to the labor market today is not artificial intelligence, but the rapid aging of the workforce. According to him, the discussion around AI distracts attention from a much larger problem, writes devby.io.
“In fact, in all developed countries, including Europe and the USA, a massive demographic change is occurring — the aging of the labor market,” Idekoba said at the Semafor World Economy Summit.
According to Indeed's estimates, the number of workers in the US will decrease by 20 million people in the next 15 years. The main contribution to this decline will come from demographics, not technology. “That’s about 5% fewer workers,” he noted, adding that
about 80% of the reduction will be due to an aging population and only 20% due to job displacement by AI.
Idekoba emphasized that businesses are already finding it difficult to replace employees who are retiring, and this has a more noticeable impact than automation.
The problem is compounded by the fact that many developed countries are already experiencing a shortage of personnel in key sectors — from construction to healthcare. According to the head of Indeed, the US and Europe have not yet grasped the scale of what is happening: the labor market is shrinking, despite a large number of open vacancies.
He cited Japan as an example, where a similar demographic crisis was partly offset by an increase in female employment. In the US and Europe, in his opinion, such a reserve no longer exists.
“In the US, Germany, the UK, and all developed countries, this will happen faster,” Idekoba said.
This is already leading to practical consequences for consumers: “That’s why this is happening now: there are a huge number of open vacancies — in construction, plumbing, healthcare, electrical work — in critically important professions, but we don’t have enough talent pipeline.”
As a result, the shortage of specialists is beginning to be felt at the everyday level. “I don’t want to wait two months for water to flow from my tap. But that’s exactly how it is in the US now,” the expert noted.
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