Switzerland to hold a referendum to limit the country's population to 10 million people

On June 14, Switzerland will hold a referendum on an initiative that seeks to keep Switzerland's permanent population below the 10 million mark by 2050. The idea "Against a Switzerland with a population of 10 million people" was put forward by the country's largest right-conservative Swiss People's Party (SVP), writes RBC.

Currently, about 9.1 million people live in the Alpine republic.

The authors of the initiative emphasize that since the agreement with the EU on free movement of people came into force in 2002, the population of Switzerland has increased by approximately 1.7 million people, "mainly due to migration."

The SVP's proposal is as follows: if the population grows to 9.5 million, the government and parliament must take measures to reduce migration — primarily in the areas of asylum and family reunification.

The trigger for this initiative was a forecast published in April 2025 by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, according to which the country expects further population growth — to approximately 10.5 million people by 2055 "largely due to migration," while the birth rate is below the simple reproduction level, and natural increase is close to zero.

The Swiss People's Party (SVP) won the parliamentary elections in 2023, receiving about 29% of the votes. Ideologically, this party is close to right-populist political forces in the EU: its representatives advocate for a strict migration policy and criticize the country's accession to sanctions against Russia, considering it a violation of the principle of neutrality.

The Federal Assembly of Switzerland is a bicameral parliament consisting of the National Council (200 seats) and the Council of States (46 seats). Due to the peculiarities of the Swiss system, based on direct democracy, no single party usually gains a majority in parliament. The country is governed by a broad coalition of political forces, and decisions are often put to referendums. Therefore, the SVP controls only about 30% of the seats in the lower house (62 seats).

SVP representative Guy Parmelin also took office as President of Switzerland on January 1.

Should the initiative be approved, the Swiss authorities, in particular, will be obliged to negotiate exceptions to international agreements that contribute to population growth.

"If the 10 million limit is exceeded, Switzerland will have to terminate these agreements, including the agreement with the EU on the free movement of people. Switzerland's participation in the Schengen and Dublin agreements of the EU will also be called into question, as will close cooperation in the fields of security and asylum," states the SVP's initiative draft.

Switzerland also acceded to the Schengen area and the Dublin system (regulation). The relevant agreements were signed in 2004, approved by referendum in 2005, and entered into force in 2008. Accession to Schengen means the abolition of systematic passport controls at borders with countries belonging to this zone, as well as the application of common rules for issuing visas. Swiss law enforcement, customs, and migration authorities also have full and direct access to pan-European information systems.

Participation in the Dublin system entails the application of common European rules for determining the state responsible for examining an asylum application. According to the regulation, responsibility for examining asylum applications generally lies with the country of first entry into the EU.

27% of Switzerland's population are foreigners, which is one of the highest indicators among developed European states.

The majority of foreigners residing in the republic come from Italy, Germany, Portugal, and France. Migrants most often come to Switzerland for employment: both in the care sector, where there is a shortage of personnel, and in highly qualified industries (e.g., the pharmaceutical industry).

If the Swiss support the idea of limiting the population, the Federal Council will first be forced to terminate the Agreement with the EU on the Free Movement of Persons. In this case, thousands of Germans could be at risk. Currently, about 339,000 Germans live in Switzerland, and almost 65,000 more commute daily to work in Switzerland from neighboring German cities.

In the event of a positive decision in the referendum, citizens of Germany, like those of other EU countries, will most likely be obliged to obtain work permits in the republic under a quota system. Critics of the initiative believe that this could lead to conflicts over the distribution of quotas among various sectors experiencing staff shortages.

Journalists draw parallels with Brexit, noting that if the initiative is adopted, a process of estrangement between Switzerland and the EU will inevitably begin.

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