The center of gravity is shifting in Israel. People from Arab countries outnumber those from Europe — this could also affect politics

More than half of Israel's Jewish population consists of descendants of people from the Middle East and North Africa. They are called Mizrahim, Mizrachim, or Eastern Jews. It is this part of society, according to sociologist Michal Bitton, that provides the key to understanding modern Israeli politics.

Bitton, who heads the Maimonides Institute for Jewish Leadership and previously directed research on Sephardic and Eastern Jews at New York University, notes that Western observers usually view Israel through the prism of the war in Gaza, the conflict with the Palestinians, and the right-left confrontation characteristic of the US and Europe. However, they often overlook deeper historical and cultural divisions.

How Eastern Jews became the backbone of the right

Jewish communities had existed in Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and Morocco for centuries, and in some places for millennia. But after the creation of Israel in 1948, their situation in many Arab countries sharply deteriorated. Jews began to be suspected of loyalty to the new state; they faced persecution, violence, confiscation of property, and expulsion.

In the 1950s and 1960s, most of them left their countries of origin. Hundreds of thousands moved to Israel, but even there, a difficult life awaited them. The political and cultural elite of the time were predominantly Ashkenazim — Jews of European descent. They often treated the new immigrants with disdain; these immigrants lived in temporary camps for a long time and then settled in poor, remote towns.

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Over the subsequent decades, many Mizrahim gained education and entered the middle class, but the memory of discrimination persisted. As Bitton argues, it played a significant role in shaping their political sympathies.

As Bitton argues, Western analysts often mistakenly assume that people who have suffered discrimination should support left-wing forces. But Mizrahim are more irritated by condescending attitudes towards their culture. Many believe that the right respects their religious and family traditions, while the left perceives these traditions as relics that need to be shed.

Since 1977, when Brest-born Menachem Begin defeated the political elite that had governed Israel since its creation, Mizrahim have become one of the main pillars of the Likud party. Netanyahu also relies on their support.

But now Likud has a dangerous opponent — the former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the new Yachar party.

Can the son of Moroccan immigrants defeat Netanyahu?

Unlike Netanyahu, who comes from an Ashkenazi family and was educated in the US, Eisenkot is the son of immigrants from Morocco. He grew up in a poor neighborhood of the southern city of Eilat, pursued a military career, and led the Israeli army. In December 2023, his youngest son Gal died in battles in the Gaza Strip.

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It would seem that such a biography is ideally suited to attract Mizrahim voters. But Eisenkot does not emphasize his background, stressing that it should not be a reason for choosing a prime minister.

He builds his campaign around fighting corruption, the leadership's responsibility for security failures during the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and universal military or civic duty.

Bitton notes that Moroccan origin alone does not guarantee Eisenkot the support of Eastern Jews. Previously, politicians with similar roots already tried to draw them to the side of the left or centrists, but without much success. Many Mizrahim still distrust the left.

Nevertheless, some Mizrahim may shift to Eisenkot. Public activist Ofir Tubul believes that these are primarily educated middle-class representatives with moderate center-right views. They do not necessarily share liberal ideology but are tired of Netanyahu and want more effective state governance.

According to Tubul's assessment, such voters could be enough to secure 10-12 seats in the 120-seat Israeli parliament. In a situation where a coalition of several parties is needed to form a government, this could be enough to change power.

The issue of military service could be particularly important for them. A significant portion of ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel are exempt from conscription, which is causing increasing irritation among those whose children are fighting. Mizrahim traditionally have a strong pro-army culture, and many consider service a universal duty. Eisenkot, a general who lost his son in the war, can convincingly advocate for this position. Netanyahu, however, depends on the support of ultra-Orthodox parties and is therefore limited in his actions.

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Israel is increasingly less like the country of its European founders

But the significance of Mizrahim, according to Bitton, extends far beyond the elections. Their historical experience has gradually changed the very character of Israeli society. Adherence to family, religious tradition, and a strong army, as well as distrust of the possibility of peaceful coexistence without reliable security guarantees, have become widespread even among Israelis of European descent.

The author links this distrust to the memory of the persecution of Jews in the Arab world. As journalist and researcher Enes Elias explains, many Mizrahim do not feel hatred towards Arabs and even recognize a cultural closeness with them. But their ancestors' experience convinces them that the security of Jews should not be left to the will of the Muslim majority. The Hamas attack on October 7 only strengthened these convictions.

Therefore, Bitton believes that Israel has already become largely a Middle Eastern country, not only by the origin of its population but also by its political worldview. The main question now is whether it can, at the same time, preserve Western democratic institutions, an independent judiciary, and a liberal press.

Paradoxically, it is Eisenkot, the son of Moroccan immigrants, who advocates for a combination of strong security policies with the preservation of liberal democracy. He speaks about the necessity of preserving Israel as both a Jewish, democratic, and liberal state.

According to Bitton, the election results will show whether Israeli society is ready for such a combination. But regardless of the winner, one thing is already clear: the country's future is increasingly defined not by the European roots of its founders, but by the historical experience and worldviews of the Jews of the Middle East.

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