Economist: In 10 years, the average Belarusian will live twice as poor as the average Pole
Compared to yesterday, Belarusians will live better, but against the backdrop of the rest of the world, our economic situation will worsen if the country's course does not change, says economist Dzmitry Kruk in an interview with Belsat.
Photo: LookByMedia
Recently, salaries in Belarus have been growing, but this growth outpaced economic growth. The reason is the shortage of labor due to demography and migration.
"In recent years, the economy has shown some growth, especially in 2023-2024, but at the same time, salaries, the real incomes of people, have grown much more significantly. For example, I can give figures: if the GDP of the entire economy grew by about 6% compared to the pre-sanction, pre-war period, then salaries grew by more than 40%. And this actually fuels such consumer optimism," says the economist.
He believes that in 2026, consumer optimism among Belarusians will begin to decline due to deteriorating economic conditions and a drop in external demand.
Dzmitry Kruk. Photo: Nasha Niva
If the political and economic course remains unchanged, the country will not face immediate collapse and destruction. But we will significantly lag behind how neighboring European countries are developing.
"I'll emphasize once again... people will still live better compared to yesterday, but the problem is that compared to how they *could* live and how the rest of the world will live, it will look worse and worse. So, effectively, in 2040, 2035, or 2036, if today we say that the gap with Poland is 35-40% according to various data, then it will increase to 50-55%. That means the average Belarusian will live twice as badly, will be poorer than the average Pole," noted Dzmitry Kruk.
He cited the example of Albania or Argentina, where stagnation gradually accumulated until people realized they were living in a backward, outdated world. As a result, there was a feeling that the country had fallen behind in development, although it could have been among the leaders.
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