Leading Trader Warns of Risk of Oil Prices Rising to $200 per Barrel Due to Lack of Reserves and Tankers

According to the expert's assessment, the fuel deficit in the markets is likely to persist in winter, and the combination of insufficient reserves and logistics problems could lead to very high oil prices.

Hardy stated at the Energy Intelligence Forum conference in London that the West has practically no reserves left that could be used to stabilize the market. According to him, the energy crisis has led to the depletion of accumulated reserves. If supplies from the Persian Gulf do not continue uninterrupted, a scenario with prices up to $200 per barrel could materialize.

Earlier, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser also warned that global oil reserves, which serve as a kind of buffer in case of crises, have become very small. According to his assessment, before the war with Iran, commercial and state strategic reserves amounted to about 10 billion barrels. Now their volume has decreased to less than 6 billion barrels, and due to various technical limitations, only about 10% of this volume is actually accessible.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates the reduction in reserves more conservatively. According to its data, since the start of the war, global commercial reserves have decreased by 507 million barrels, or an average of 2.8 million barrels per day. In August, the rate of reduction accelerated: reserves decreased by 95 million barrels, which corresponds to approximately 3.1 million barrels per day. This happened because market participants had to use accumulated reserves to ensure the supply of oil and petroleum products.

According to the IEA, reserves have played and continue to play a key role in maintaining market balance throughout this period. Amid their depletion and almost full utilization of existing refining capacities, an end to conflicts in the Middle East, as well as the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, becomes particularly important.

In March, developed countries, with the mediation of the IEA, agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to the market. Not all of this volume was taken directly from strategic reserves. On Friday, the G7 countries also decided to additionally release 100 million barrels of diesel fuel and crude oil to the market. Diesel has become one of the most scarce types of fuel. The exact volumes of crude oil and diesel to be supplied to the market have not yet been specified. Hardy called the announced plans insufficiently transparent.

Amin Nasser warned that until the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and market participants gain confidence in supply stability, pressure on the entire transportation system will intensify. According to him, crude oil transportation has already become a serious problem, but prices for petroleum products have risen even more sharply due to their shortage.

Hardy noted that the current crisis has gone through several stages. First, there was a shortage of crude oil, then the problem escalated into a deficit of petroleum products, and now, even with increased oil supplies from the Middle East, the problem of its transportation is becoming increasingly acute. According to him, there are simply not enough tankers for this.

Currently, oil exports from the Persian Gulf are organized according to a complex scheme. Some tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz under the protection of American warships, but even so, they sometimes come under fire from Iran. In the Gulf of Oman, oil is reloaded onto other vessels. Hardy called this scheme very inefficient: tankers can wait days or even weeks for cargo, which means fewer of them are available for transport in other regions. This has already led to a sharp increase in freight prices.

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