European Special Services Are Looking for a Russian Trace in Anonymous Bomb Threats on Airplanes

This week, dozens of European planes were temporarily taken out of service after emails began arriving reporting explosive devices on flights between European cities. Analysts call this campaign highly unusual.

Special services and security agencies from several European countries have joined the cross-border investigation. According to their representatives, identifying the organizers could take a long time, and the investigation might not yield a definitive result at all.

Despite the lack of evidence, some representatives of European intelligence structures consider Russia the most likely source of the threats. Among their arguments, they cite possible motives, methods, previous similar incidents, and the initial results of forensic examination.

The threats emerged amidst an intensified hybrid campaign that, according to Western intelligence agencies, Russian agents are conducting in Europe. One of its directions is the exploitation of vulnerabilities in civilian infrastructure in a way that allows denying involvement. The goal of such actions is to disrupt people's normal lives, increase pressure on society, and create the impression that authorities are unable to guarantee security.

The working hypothesis of the investigation is that coordinated threats might have been organized by pro-Kremlin activists or hacker groups. However, it is not yet clear whether Russian special services directly managed them, merely encouraged such activities, or gave permission for them.

No explosive devices were found on the planes that were the subject of the threats. So far, no clear pattern has been identified in the disruptions to air traffic.

This year, Russia's hybrid activities in Europe have also been accompanied by physical sabotages, including the use of explosive drones to attack planes on the ground. Until now, such attacks have been exclusively aimed at targets that Russia considers linked to military or logistical support for Ukraine.

An intelligence representative quoted by the Financial Times noted that Russia currently adheres to a certain logic in selecting targets. According to him, the Kremlin understands that the deliberate destruction of a civilian airliner over Europe would be a red line and could provoke a military response from NATO.

Special service representatives do not yet believe that the current threats pose a real danger to European civilian aviation. However, European air traffic has previously faced large-scale disruptions due to the appearance of drones in air corridors near major airports. This happened just over a year ago. Most security experts believe that Russian agents were behind those incidents.

False bomb reports have also been used before. In October 2023, a similar campaign affected schools and kindergartens in Lithuania: more than 1,500 reports of non-existent bomb threats were received. According to intelligence assessments, the campaign aimed to intimidate the population and undermine trust in law enforcement agencies.

Lithuania publicly attributed responsibility for that campaign to an unnamed state actor, without specifying a particular country. However, intelligence circles concluded that Russian activists, likely operating with the support of Russian special services, were behind it.

A representative of regional security services noted that the Baltic countries often become a testing ground for Russian provocations. According to him, Western Europe is now facing the types of attacks that Russia has been using in the Baltic countries for almost two decades.

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