Palchys Revealed Who Was the Main Organizer of the 2020 Protests

So, now it's time to talk about the main and true organizers of 2020. But for that, we'll have to remember something. Unfortunately, human memory likes to preserve selected moments, discarding important details.

January 2020 — the Belarusian political field is dead. The so-called "primaries of the Belarusian opposition" are extremely sluggish, where leaders of aging parties try to play at nominating a single candidate. The 2020 elections, it seems, will be even duller than in 2015.

Statkevich presents his plan with "protest candidates". He couldn't run in the elections himself, so he wanted to register dozens of different activists as candidates to use the campaign for agitation and activation.

February — disputes around a virus that then arrives in Belarus.

March — epidemic and the beginning of large-scale self-organization of people. Everyone supports doctors however they can.

In the same month, Tikhanovsky is already traveling around the regions with his streams, where people gladly come to talk about their problems. Statkevich's "protest candidates" also appear on his streams.

April — due to the behavior of Lukashenka and the regime during COVID, politicization and discontent in society are growing. The audience of TG channels is increasing, as are Tikhanovsky's views. People are angry.

And it's here that someone starts actively writing to Tikhanovsky in the comments: "Siarhei, we're with you!", "Siarhei, let's go!", "Siarhei, run for president, we'll support you."

May:

• May 6: Tikhanovsky is detained for 24 hours.
• May 7: He uploads a pre-prepared video announcing his presidential bid. Many are surprised and don't yet take it entirely seriously, thinking that the blogger, having listened to his audience's calls, is making another loud media move.
• May 8: Tsepkalo announces his presidential bid. This is what makes the perception of events much more serious.
• May 12: Babaryka also announces his nomination on the very last day.
• May 15: The Central Election Commission refuses to register Tikhanovsky's initiative group (he is in the temporary detention center in Mogilev), but suddenly Sviatlana decides to apply for registration herself.
• May 20: Suddenly, Tikhanovsky is released early from detention. Everyone rejoices. Record online streams are happening. Simultaneously, on this day, the registration of the initiative groups of Babaryka, Tsepkalo, and others (15 people in total) takes place.
• May 29: Tikhanovsky is detained live on air in front of tens of thousands of viewers.
• May 31: A mega-queue at the signature collection pickets, where thousands of people form a chain. Nikolai Statkevich is also detained.

And throughout this entire month, someone is furious in the comments, self-organizes into teams, helps those imprisoned and detained (so far for 24 hours), and joins candidates' teams in crowds.

Our bloggers' chat watched this with wide eyes. Some were in a fighting mood and expected an increase in subscribers, but some (including me) were initially quite skeptical.

June:

• June 7: A second signature collection picket takes place at Kamarouka, turning into a long chain of thousands of people. Pavel Seviarynets is detained.
• June 11: Searches take place at Belgazprombank, a criminal case is initiated, Viktor Babaryka's partners are detained.
• June 18: Viktor and Eduard Babaryka are arrested. People themselves came out for a solidarity action, the human chain stretched for a couple of kilometers, everyone was buzzing and driving around until midnight.
• June 19: Viktor Babaryka's video is released in case of his imprisonment. The team's main backup plan is to collect signatures for a return to the 1994 Constitution.
• June 25: Ihar Losik is detained. An important, but overlooked event for history.
• End of June — beginning of July: Anton Matolka, Franak Viačorka, and some other people leave the country. Through various channels, including openly, they were threatened with imprisonment.
• June 30: A CEC meeting takes place, as a result of which Tsepkalo and several other candidates are banned.

If May was Tikhanovsky's month, then June and the first half of July were Babaryka's and his team's time.

Sviatlana, at this time, travels across the country, trying to collect signatures for her team, which is hiding and scared (detentions are ongoing). She also complains that everyone quickly forgot about her husband.

What was happening with the bloggers? We were very angry that Losik was detained. This quickly united everyone and played the role of an internal catalyst. As for me, in June, I was заочно sentenced to 30 days of administrative arrest, and they were looking for me to imprison me beforehand. But there was no hint of organizing anything big yet.

And note how precisely the regime operates according to Soviet methods. Not even two months have passed since the activation — all leaders are imprisoned, all headquarters are attacked, the most active and visible individuals are isolated. Essentially, by all old rules and laws, there is no one left to lead the protest. Buuut….

Someone, on the contrary, showed unprecedented activity in June, despite arrests and intimidation. I was shamed in my predictions that candidates wouldn't manage to collect 100 thousand signatures. Because someone was rushing out of entire apartment buildings to meet collectors, thousands were registering in initiative groups, chats and the internet were boiling.

July

July 1-14: Babaryka and his son are charged, independent journalists are attacked, detentions continue. Andrei Stryzhak leaves the country. Tikhanovskaya receives calls from unknown SIM cards threatening her children.

About one of the main turning points of these events — July 14, 2020 — I will write sometime later.

The bloggers' chat is busy with various things — I was looking for a TV for Losik in Valadarka prison and trying to help other people, while simultaneously hiding underground. Stsiapan and Roma, along with Nexta, were drowning in messages in their bot. Everyone else also had their own worries, mainly related to helping someone detained.

The regime, however, was only ramping up. Exercises at airfields were already being prepared, the security apparatus in the regions was already being set in motion.

But for some reason, it's not working as the regime would like. Someone takes to the streets for solidarity actions with the detained Babaryka. And on his channel, a convincing blonde named Maria begins to appear in videos.

Someone massively offers help in retraining law enforcement officers who want to leave the system. At the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, cadets refuse to sign for Lukashenka.

And here I have a question for all the conspiracy theorists, whiners, and armchair experts. Where and at what point did Russia with its special services manage to get involved in all this bacchanalia? Or the West?

The truth is very trivial. The main organizers of 2020 are the Belarusian people and Lukashenka's regime.

A new generation has grown up with its own demands, opinions, and requirements. It was in many ways naive and sincerely thought that if they somehow went to polling stations and observed there, and did something like that in general, something could change. The security forces decided to suppress everything, but the reaction suddenly turned out to be the opposite.

It was precisely the demand and energy of Belarusians that became the main driving force of all processes.

They could love Tikhanovsky for a month and then forget him. Then shift their hopes to Babaryka, and then to the trio of bright Belarusian women. And then, when all the bright protest leaders were imprisoned, start writing messages to the NEXTA bot: "You're in Poland and safe, make some noise, we'll support you..."

I understand why some disillusioned and burned-out people are now trying to find a scapegoat — these are trivial and basic behaviors. But whoever tries to present these events as the actions of some intelligence agencies, especially Russian ones, is no different from Putin, who refused to acknowledge the independence of Ukrainians during the Maidan.

So if you want to see the main organizer of 2020 — go look in a mirror.

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Texts in the "Opinions" section may or may not coincide with the Editorial Board's position.

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