"Red alert level - we don't work, yellow - we try to work to not go crazy"

"Nasha Niva" publishes the main points from this interview.

"Last winter was the hardest in 20 years. Temperatures sometimes dropped to minus 25 degrees Celsius. Entire districts of Kyiv, especially on the left bank of the Dnieper, lived for weeks without light and heat," says Denis. "However, this summer also turned out to be the most difficult in the city's history."

According to him, two factors coincided.

— First, in winter, Trump launched his very successful "Epic Fury" operation in Iran, which led to a large deficit of weaponry. This greatly affected the situation with air defense. The PAC-3 MSE missile for Patriot systems works best against ballistic missiles. In July, Ukraine received them in small batches — 15-20 missiles. We don't know what the situation looks like now, says Denis, but it's unlikely that the July figures have changed much.

Second, Russia increased its production of ballistic missiles. While it previously produced about 60 conventional ballistic missiles per month, now it's up to 75. There are also missiles that fly on a quasi-ballistic trajectory, such as "Zircon". Roughly speaking, we are talking about the production of approximately 80-100 ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles per month.

Ukraine, in essence, has nothing to shoot them down with. In addition, several Patriot systems are located in Kyiv — this is an open secret. It is clear that when there was a deficit [of air defense systems] here, they started shooting exactly here, because a new window of opportunity opened up for the Russian army.

In addition, there is the problem of jet drones — "Geranium-4" and "Geranium-5". In principle, Ukraine was morally ready for such attacks since the beginning of the year. Technically, there are ways to shoot them down, but it is extremely difficult to find a mass solution to combat these drones, which fly at speeds of up to 650 kilometers per hour. And at the same time to make sure that this solution doesn't cost one and a half to two times more than the "Geraniums" themselves.

Quite often, strikes were delivered even before an air raid alert was announced. But ballistic missiles fly so fast that even if you've already heard the alarm signal, many have almost no opportunity to go down to a shelter: a missile can arrive one or two minutes after the alarm is announced.

And if at that moment you are, for example, on the street and only heading to a shelter, it can be more dangerous than staying in the corridor. You go to sleep and don't know which night it will happen. In practice, a strike can be delivered at any moment.

Denis says that many people in his circle are already at their breaking point.

"They are thinking about the coming winter. Those who have the opportunity to go somewhere for the winter are assessing whether they can afford it. I don't have such an opportunity, says Denis: it's impossible to work as a Kyiv correspondent without being in Kyiv.

My friends were looking for apartments in Ivano-Frankivsk and Chernivtsi. Prices, naturally, skyrocketed. The economic situation in Ukraine can be described in one sentence: people have become very poor.

And ahead, one can say with certainty, there will inevitably be a sharp increase in the price of food, internet, communication, and so on. Finding money for a very expensive apartment somewhere in the west of the country is extremely difficult.

The economic component is now very important. Many employers suffer from attacks — they have affected almost all industries. People's salaries are being cut, and at the same time, everything is getting more expensive. This puts people into a psychological stupor.

In such stressful situations, some cope better, others worse. If you look at my circle, the number of people taking sedatives, seeking psychologists or psychiatrists, has increased many times over.

— If you walk around Kyiv on a weekday now, what has changed compared to summer? What strikes you first?

— The number of destroyed buildings has significantly increased. Kyiv has 1,200 multi-story buildings, and it seems to me that approximately a third of them have been affected over these four and a half years. Not always catastrophically, but at least one window was blown out.

There are fewer people in the city, although this may not be very noticeable. The specifics of Kyiv are such that as some people leave, new ones arrive — from Sumy or other cities [located close to the front].

— There are no official figures yet, but I noticed that it's easier to park, fewer people go to cafes and restaurants. Fewer people can also be seen on the streets, although perhaps this is due to many being transferred to remote work.

And another thing that stands out is that people have become much more nervous.

— Are more and more people switching to remote work?

— Yes, where possible. Universities have begun to quite massively switch to remote learning. Since September 1, schools have not started working normally in the usual in-person mode — with so many hours of air raid alerts per day, it is very difficult.

In addition, Russia has recently been attacking Ukrainian data centers. Take the strike on the National Academy of Sciences [September 28]: in the house next to it is one of the offices of "Ukrtelecom", a Ukrainian internet provider. On the same day, another Ukrtelecom office, located in the same building as the private clinic "Dobrobut", was hit. Another strike [September 25] hit a data center on Shuliavka, which is in an office building. There were also terrible scenes there — bodies literally lying on the street.

Russia is not holding back — and I say this without exaggeration. It's not that in this case it necessarily targeted civilian objects, but this is no longer collateral damage — it is part of military strategy.

During working hours, Russia can strike a gas station or a large office center. Apparently, it will continue to adhere to this tactic. And given how fast everything flies, you can't even do anything.

According to the journalist, all business representatives see the future differently, but they believe that the restaurant business in shopping centers will not survive this winter: it is dangerous to bring employees to work there during an air raid alert, even if it has a yellow level.

There is reason to believe that Russia will strike shopping centers. Therefore, most likely, not only the restaurant business in shopping centers but also all retail in them will cease to exist. At the same time, for the economy of Ukraine, shopping centers are an important segment.

In Kyiv, there are "Respublika" and Blockbuster Mall — these are the largest shopping centers not only in Ukraine but in all of [Eastern] Europe.

Entrepreneurs — regardless of whether they are engaged in selling clothes, the restaurant business, or something else — are trying to find solutions. However, no one can 100% foresee what the situation will be like in winter, so it's all one big improvisation.

Otherwise, business focuses on adaptation: red alert level — we don't work, yellow — we try to work somehow, because otherwise you can go crazy.

— Can a red alert level last for hours?

— Not really, more likely yellow. This is Russia's targeted tactic: launching small groups of jet drones in sequence. One flies in, it's shot down, then a second is launched. All of this is done either to make the yellow alert last almost indefinitely, or so that the same yellow alert is declared again after 20 minutes.

A red level is already either a truly massive drone attack or a specific missile threat.

— How much has the daily routine of Kyiv residents changed since shelling began to occur during working hours?

— There is no routine — it's complete improvisation. Meetings are constantly postponed and canceled, but business somehow manages to work. I myself am surprised how the cafes on my street manage to open on time. If you want to have coffee at a cafe that opens at eight in the morning, you can somehow do it.

Over these four and a half years, all sorts of things have happened to us. But there was never such a level of anxiety before. Now it has become constant. People see what is happening. Very often, jet "Geraniums" fly right overhead. As strange as it may sound, this is good, because then you won't be directly affected. Most likely.

I've seen a lot over the years, but when this super-fast thing, which sounds like a quiet jet plane, rushes over your head, it's very nerve-wracking.

Denis believes that in the future, a difficult situation with medicines may arise. Some types of drugs may become scarce: there were strikes on the enterprise of a large pharmaceutical company "Darnitsa" in Kyiv. Primarily, this is part of economic warfare, but such attacks show that Russia is not too concerned about the lives of civilians. I think in 2026, this no longer needs to be explained.

There is also collateral damage. During attacks on warehouses, absolutely everyone suffers — both book publishers and manufacturers of a wide variety of goods. Quite a few medicine warehouses were also destroyed. This does not mean that a catastrophe will occur, but a shortage of certain medicines may begin.

Denis says that a threat of hunger is unlikely.

— The capabilities of the Ukrainian agricultural sector, despite all the problems of 2022, are enormous. But a shortage of goods and a significant price increase are almost inevitable. We cannot yet estimate the scale of this. However, it will be entirely possible to survive the winter by eating, conditionally speaking, only buckwheat.

Attempts are now being made to restructure logistics in such a way as to supply supermarkets with more goods directly from suppliers. But the vehicle fleets that chain stores and suppliers had in the 2000s, and which were then necessary, no longer exist.

There is also the possibility of importing food from the European Union. We have already seen a similar situation in 2022, including with gasoline and food products. Back then, Russia destroyed the few Ukrainian oil refineries, and now Ukraine is almost 100% dependent on gasoline from Europe.

— Last winter, 600,000 people left Kyiv due to electricity and heating outages. Should we expect such a mass exodus of the population this winter?

— First, I want to note that Klitschko's figure of 600,000 is pulled out of thin air. People left, but there was no noticeable population outflow. This winter, the situation will probably be different, as much depends on a number of factors.

It is clear that for people who have relatives [in other cities] or a house in some village where at least they can burn wood, this is an option. But many have limited mobility — primarily I mean mobilization. Outside Kyiv, there are checkpoints, and if your documents are not in order, you won't get far by car. Therefore, some people will actually not be able to leave Kyiv. And often, girls, wives, and children stay with them.

And, as I said, prices have risen so much that not everyone can afford to rent an apartment somewhere in western Ukraine.

— Can those who stay in the city prepare for winter?

— Nothing new here. It is clear that you cannot put a gasoline generator on a balcony in an apartment building, because the whole apartment could burn down. But power banks, EcoFlow charging stations, and all this infrastructure are generally already available to people.

I'm not saying everyone, because there are also those who don't particularly bother with this and live as they live, depending on the circumstances. But those who wanted to prepare for winter are generally ready for it long ago.

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