The 'Godzilla' of climatic phenomena is approaching the world. When will it peak and what can Europe expect?

El Niño occurs approximately every two to seven years when sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually high. This alters air mass movements and precipitation distribution in various regions of the planet.

Scientists warned about the potential for a strong El Niño formation as early as the beginning of 2026. In June, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) officially confirmed the start of the phenomenon. By the end of summer, forecasts became even more alarming: specialists suggested that the current El Niño could surpass all similar events since the 19th century. Due to its unusual strength, it was even dubbed "Godzilla El Niño."

How much has the ocean warmed?

According to the European climate service Copernicus, the average sea surface temperature of the World Ocean reached 21.05 °C in September. This is a record for this month throughout observation history.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that in October-December, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific will also reach record values.

The Niño 3.4 index indicates how quickly El Niño is strengthening. It shows the deviation of sea surface temperature from the norm in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

In June 2026, this deviation averaged +1.6 °C, and in August, it increased to +2.5 °C. According to forecasts, the average for October-December could reach +3.7 °C. This would exceed the previous record of +2.6 °C recorded during the 2015-2016 El Niño.

Where to expect droughts, floods, and fires?

El Niño can significantly alter the usual weather patterns in different parts of the world. During previous strong episodes of this phenomenon, some regions faced prolonged droughts and wildfires, while others experienced devastating floods.

There is an increased risk of floods in South America, the southern US, East Africa, and Central Asia. Australia, northern areas of South America, and some Asian countries, including Indonesia, are more threatened by droughts and fires.

In Europe, El Niño could lead to a milder and wetter winter. However, there is also a possibility of sharp cold snaps. The fact is that at its peak strength, El Niño can weaken the polar vortex — a system of air currents that prevents the spread of cold Arctic air southward.

Even if extreme weather bypasses Europe, its consequences could affect food supplies. Specialists from the Dutch Institute for Water Education IHE Delft warn that droughts threaten harvests in countries from which Europe imports agricultural products.

For example, in Nicaragua, a lack of rainfall could lead to crop losses for corn and beans. In Colombia, northeastern Brazil, and India, declining river water levels could complicate field irrigation. This threatens not only local farmers but also export supplies.

When will El Niño peak and end?

According to the latest forecast from the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño will reach its greatest strength in December 2026. With a probability of almost 100%, the phenomenon will persist until February 2027, with its completion expected in spring. This year's El Niño could become one of the strongest since 1950.

This forecast is not based on a single climate model. The WMO combined data from oceanic buoys, satellites, and atmospheric observations obtained from 13 national and international centers.

However, even after El Niño ends, its impact on weather may persist. Scientists do not rule out that 2027 will be the hottest year in the history of meteorological observations.

How global warming amplifies El Niño

Typically, El Niño raises the planet's average temperature by approximately 0.2 °C. However, this natural phenomenon is currently developing against a backdrop of global warming. Due to the burning of fossil fuels, the Earth's average surface temperature has already risen by 1.3-1.4 °C compared to the pre-industrial period.

As a result, El Niño can further increase global temperature and intensify extreme weather events. Moreover, according to recent studies, climate change may have made El Niño episodes themselves 36% stronger than before the start of the industrial era.

"El Niño does not add new heat to the planet. It releases heat that the ocean has already accumulated beneath its surface. That is why years with strong El Niño so often become some of the hottest on record, as was the case in 2024. The ocean from which it draws this heat is now the warmest in our measurement history. Therefore, there is simply more heat that can be released," the publication quoted World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo at a climate forum in Bangkok in October.

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