Americans are setting records for early voting in Congress. Even the Pope requested a ballot
Less than a week remains until the US midterm elections, the results of which will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years. Over 43 million Americans have already voted early. Between four and five million people cast their ballots early each day — significantly more than in most previous elections, the BBC writes .
According to Professor Mike McDonald, who coordinates the collection of early voting data for the University of Florida's Election Lab project, particularly high activity is observed in Texas. Over 5.8 million people have already voted here — 1.75 million more than during the same period before the 2022 elections. Voters of Latin American descent are also voting unusually actively.
Texas is the second most populous US state, traditionally supportive of Republicans. It has now become one of the main centers of the election campaign: the outcome of the vote could influence which party controls the Senate until the end of Donald Trump's presidential term.
Total turnout, according to preliminary estimates, could exceed 2020 figures and possibly even 2018. Back then, the midterm elections broke the 1914 record for the number of participants.
In states where voters must declare their party affiliation, early voting indicates increased activity among Democrats. Republican activity remains approximately at 2022 levels. According to data as of October 29, 44% of ballots already cast belong to supporters of the Democratic Party, 31.2% to the Republican Party, and another 24.7% to voters not affiliated with any party.
McDonald also notes an increase in the number of early voters who do not identify as either Democrats or Republicans. However, available data does not allow for determining which candidates they are voting for.
In North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, voters must declare their racial affiliation when registering. According to statistics from these states, the number of votes cast by Latinos and African Americans has increased, while the activity of white voters remains approximately at the level of early voting in 2022. McDonald explains this by stating that representatives of racial and ethnic minorities more often support the Democratic Party, while white voters more often belong to the Republican electoral coalition.
In Texas, voters do not indicate either party or racial affiliation. However, indirect data indicates a significant increase in activity in several counties along the border with Mexico, where over 90% of the population is Latino. In some of these counties, the number of early voters has already exceeded the total turnout for the entire 2022 election.
The popularity of early voting in the US has significantly increased in recent years. This was partly facilitated by the COVID-19 pandemic, after which more and more states began offering voters the option to vote in advance — either in person or by mail.
In the 2020 elections, when Americans elected a president and members of Congress, over two-thirds of all votes were cast early. Half of them were cast by mail.
According to McDonald, voters are now increasingly preferring in-person voting, even when it happens early. Additionally, they are starting to submit ballots earlier than in previous elections. There are no precise explanations for this shift. However, ballots sent by mail are more often deemed invalid due to errors in completion, and some voters may be concerned about potential disruptions in the operation of the US Postal Service.
Some cities have already recorded record early turnout. For example, on Thursday, Minneapolis authorities reported that the number of early voters in non-presidential elections was the highest in the city's history.
Early voting will soon conclude: in several states, it stops a few days before the main election day, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3.
Meanwhile, it became known that even Pope Leo XIV intends to participate in the voting. He is still registered as a voter in Will County, Illinois. On October 3, the pontiff submitted an application to receive a ballot, Kim Fladharmmer, chief of staff for the County Clerk's Office, told the Chicago Sun-Times.
If the Pope fills out and sends his ballot, he will become the first sitting pontiff to participate in secular political elections.
The vote will be secret, so it is unknown for whom Leo XIV will cast his ballot. However, a sharp conflict arose in the spring between the Pope and Donald Trump, as well as his administration. Even the Italian leadership spoke out in defense of the pontiff against criticism from the American president.
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